Dominic Tiano: Bruins Playoff Scenarios

Amigo Dom Tiano is back with another great post about the playoffs and how the play-in and round robins affect the Boston Bruins. – KL

Pastrnak

With just one game remaining for the Boston Bruins before the real games begin, they find themselves in a position fans, and probably the Bruins themselves, didn’t expect after dominating the regular season standings before action was paused due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

After losing it’s first two games, the Bruins sit in fourth spot before hitting the ice in Sunday’s matchup with the Washington Capitals. Here’s a look at the standings:

Tampa Bay 4 points

Philadelphia 4 points

Washington 1 point

Boston 0 points.

Carolina .596 pts% (advances)

Islanders .588 pts% (advances)

Toronto .579 pts%

Columbus .579 pts%

Montreal .500 pts% (advances)

So, what are the possible scenarios facing the Bruins and what does the outcome of Sunday’s contest mean?

Scenario 1: Boston beats Washington in any manner:

Winning in overtime or a shootout will leave the teams tied with 2 points a piece and the tie breaker is regular season points percentage, which favors the Bruins, so they would end up third. Winning in regulation would give the Bruins 2 points versus the Caps 1 point, so any type of win gives the Bruins third place.

Win and they face the Islanders.

The outcome of the Leafs and Blue Jackets play in round has no affect on who the Bruins opponent will be.

Scenario 2: Washington wins in any matter:

Lose in any fashion and face Carolina.

So, the Bruins possible opponents come down to New York Islanders or Carolina. Pick your poison. We’ll know Sunday.

Some quick thoughts:

  • Fans are looking for excuses for the Bruins and there are many out there on social media. The fact of the matter is the Bruins were the hardest hit team in phase 3 with players going in and out as “unfit to play” and thus taking longer to find chemistry and gel. But is there enough time before round 1 begins?
  • I wonder about Tuukka Rask’s While he was mostly solid against the Lightning, I counted four times the puck went in and out of his glove. You have to wonder if there is some pain there.
  • Torey Krug. There is no questioning his heart and drive. He wants to win and it was never more evident when he dropped the mitts with Blake Coleman not only to come to the defence of a teammate, but provide the spark his team needed.
  • Matt Grzelcyk and the power play. If David Pastrnak’s blast that trickled through Andrei Vasilevskiy hadn’t been pulled from the goal line, this conversation would be mute. That was the powerplay with Krug serving his fighting major. With Gryz running the powerplay, he went down behind the goal line and tried to feed a pass through three Lightning penalty killers and it ended up going the other way. He just doesn’t see the ice as well as Krug and doesn’t posses the shot and passing skills as Krug.
  • The third line of Anders Bjork, Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk looked good for the most part. They were very good at puck possession and had some very good offensive zone time. If there is any change I would make there it is to put DeBrusk on the left side and Bjork on the right.
  • The second line continues to frustrate. As the game went on, Nick Ritchie got better and began to find some chemistry with David Krejci in his first game of the post season. Jack Studnicka looked good in his time there but it wasn’t a legitimate second line. Let’s not put any unnecessary pressure on the kid. Ondrej Kase is expected to make his debut Sunday and the Bruins and their fans better hope he finds instant chemistry because, with all due respect, Karson Kuhlman is not the answer.
  • Zdeno Chara looked slow even by his standards. He was susceptible to the speed game and on Wednesday Victor Hedman gave him lessons on how to use that enormous reach.
  • I’m a big fan of Jeremy Lauzon, but I wonder if it’s time for him to sit and give John Moore a chance. Lauzon lost positioning very early in the game and had to take a penalty and it prevented the Bruins from getting everyone into the game right away. He also lost coverage that resulted in a Tampa goal. Right now, Moore would be a better option at puck retrieval and moving up ice by skating or passing.
  • Brandon Carlo has been anything but the Brandon Carlo we’ve been accustomed to. He seems to have lost the confidence in his ability to skate with the puck and he isn’t the consistent shut down guy we’ve been use to seeing. He will need to find that and quickly.

 

 

Dominic Tiano: Evan Gold- the Man Behind the Bruins Cap Wizardry

Here’s an insightful post from Dom Tiano about Evan Gold, who is instrumental in Boston’s ability to manage the ever-complex salary cap management reality of the modern NHL. Enjoy!-KL

Most of the credit when it comes to the Boston Bruins and their ability to sign players to cap friendly deals and the way they manage the cap goes to General Manager Don Sweeney. It is the GM’s responsibility to bring in the best possible minds to put a management team together, so in that sense, Sweeney has done his job.

But let’s give credit where credit is due: Evan Gold is a master when it comes to the cap.

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Dominic Tiano: Lyle, Messner, Voyer- Why AHL Contracts vs NHL?

Dom is back with a follow-up to his post yesterday announcing the signing of two 20-year-olds to AHL contracts, and to clarify what these signings mean. Major point 1- these players are NOT on NHL deals, so none of the trio are eligible to play games for the Boston Bruins this season without a NHL contract in place. However- as he explains below, there are specific benefits to having these players in the fold under AHL agreements. It’s well worth reading all the way to the end. -KL

When Boston Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney announced that they had signed Alex-Olivier Voyer and Brady Lyle to two-year American Hockey League contracts and extended Joel Messner to a one-year AHL deal, Bruins fans took to social media asking why AHL deals?

The obvious answer is that the Bruins have traded away draft picks over the past couple of seasons and are trying to keep the prospect pool filled. But the truth of the matter is this is more of a balancing act then anything.

Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, NHL teams are only allowed to have 50 individual player contracts signed at any one time, with the exception of junior eligible players returned to Canadian Major Junior, those contracts can “slide” and not count against the 50-contract limit.

After signing Nick Wolff, Jack Ahcan and Jeremy Swayman last month, the Bruins sat at 31 contracts for next season.

The Bruins have two unrestricted free agent netminders in Jaroslav Halak and Maxime Lagace, and unless they intend on giving Daniel Vladar (RFA) the full-time backup role in Boston, one of them could be back or maybe a different goaltender that has more experience then Vladar. But Vladar needs a contract as well.

That could bring the number of contracts to 33.

Then the Bruins have six unrestricted free agent skaters: Zdeno Chara, Torey Krug, Kevan Miller, Joakim Nordstrom, Alex Petrovic and Ryan Fitzgerald (who is a group 6 UFA). It’s reasonable to assume from that group the Bruins are likely to make offers to Chara, Krug and Miller to retain their services and even more likely that just two of them will be back. But if they truly want to bring three of them back, they need a contract spot.

That could bring the number to 36 contracts.

The list of restricted free agents is even longer. Jake DeBrusk, Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk, Brett Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Karson Kuhlman, Brendan Gaunce, Peter Cehlarik, Jakub Zboril, Wiley Sherman and Vladar all become RFA. It’s likely that all of them will receive their qualifying offers if only to retain their rights. We are sure DeBrusk, Bjork and Grzelcyk will be back. The rest are likely to get two-way contracts.

That could bring us to 46 contracts.

Then the Bruins will have to make a decision on Cameron Clarke who they must sign before August 15 or he becomes an unrestricted free agent. That could bring the Bruins to 47 contracts. They also have Cooper Zech on an AHL contract and may want to lock him up before another NHL team swoops in and signs him. That could push the total to 48 contracts.

What these three deals do is two-fold. 1) It locks players up and takes them out of the hands of other NHL teams while providing you three players who at least have a shot of playing in the NHL. 2) By signing them to AHL deals, it allows them the maneuverability to make other roster moves while staying under the 50-contract limit.

 

Dom Tiano analysis & interview with Clarkson Associate Coach Josh Hauge: Dustyn McFaul

This is a guest post by TSP Amigo Dominic Tiano on former OJHL and current Clarkson University defenseman Dustyn McFaul, drafted by the Boston Bruins in 2018. Dom watched McFaul in junior hockey during his draft season and subsequent 2018-19 campaign with the Pickering Panthers before he headed to Potsdam.

Dom also tracked down Clarkson Associate Head Coach Josh Hauge, who runs the defense for the Golden Knights for Head Coach Casey Jones, and we’re pleased to provide you the audio from that interview.

This is a quality deep-dive on a Bruins prospect who is not a household name when it comes to discussing the team’s futures, so thanks for reading/listening, and stay safe and healthy.

Thanks again to Dom for putting this together

Dustin McFaul then:

Looking back prior to the 2018 National Hockey League Draft, there was one player that intrigued me more then any other in the sixth round prior to teams and potential picks departed for the American Airlines Center in Dallas: Dustyn McFaul.

Not many sixth-round picks make a career for themselves in the NHL. In McFaul’s case, it wasn’t the ability to play hockey that saw him being selected with the 181st pick. McFaul still had a year of hockey before he would begin his NCAA career with Clarkson University for the 2019-2020 season. It was going to require a team with a lot of depth and the patience to wait out that one year of junior, along with potentially four years in the NCAA and probably a year in the American Hockey League.

The Boston Bruins had just that, and selected McFaul. (as a Bruins fan, I was all smiles).

Flashback to the 2017-2018 season and my thoughts on McFaul prior to the draft:

What McFaul accomplished as a rookie in the OJHL came as quite a surprise. He quickly became a player who could eat up large minutes, averaging 28 minutes per game when I saw him. As a youngster, he was thrown into every situation, be it penalty killing, powerplay and 5v5 against the top players the opposition could throw out there.

 

Not only was McFaul a leader on the blue line, but he showed excellent leadership qualities on a young Panthers squad. He is very coachable and seems to absorb what the coaches are telling him. He’s also very humble and puts aside any personal achievements and goals for those of his teammates.

 

At 6’2”, McFaul has good size, but will need to put in some work to add much needed bulk to his frame, something that he is aware of. It can only help him in the defensive zone when it comes to battling in those hard areas. He has an above average wing span for a player of his size and he uses it effectively. His mobility is very good and in combination with his stick skills and size, keeps players from getting to the danger areas.

 

Offensively, McFaul is very good at joining the rush, making very good first passes and has shown he can quarterback a powerplay. He needs to improve his shot, but it can also come along when he adds some muscle.

 

Above all else, the thing that stood out to me most, and talking to those around his game, it is his work ethic. It may have been a blessing in disguise for McFaul not to make the Frontenacs and the OHL at the time, and he realized that he needed to put some work in and he did. And his attitude tells him just making it isn’t good enough, he’ll continue to put that work in to improve throughout his career.

 

McFaul isn’t one of those guys that you draft hoping he can make your squad in a couple of years. He’s a project that you will need to put in some time with and realistically, if he develops into his full potential, you’re looking at 5 or 6 years away. If you are a team with a deep prospect pool, he’s the type of player you look for in the late rounds.

 

McFaul had to make a decision on where to play for the 2018-2019 season. The Ontario Hockey League wasn’t an option so that he could keep his NCAA eligibility. He could return to the Pickering Panthers of the Ontario Junior Hockey League or join the Cedar Rapids Rough Riders of the United States Hockey League, where he was a third-round pick, 37th overall, at the 2018 USHL Draft.

McFaul chose to return to the Panthers. It was a tough season for them but we were able to see McFaul take on an even bigger role on and off the ice. He took on an expanded leadership role and there were improvements all around on the ice for him personally. But he is so humble that any questions about personal achievements quickly turn to talking about the team.

I recently had the opportunity to speak with Clarkson Assistant Coach Josh Hauge who works with Clarkson’s blueliners about the season that was and what we can expect moving forward. Have a listen:

McFaul

Clarkson University Athletics photo

 

 

Dominic Tiano: A Look Back at the Man They Call ‘Studs’

 

Jack Studnicka of the Oshawa Generals. Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images.

(Photo credit: Terry Wilson/OHL Images)

Guest post by Dominic Tiano:

As most of you know, my priority is the Ontario Hockey League and the NHL Draft because that’s where my eyes are mostly focused. And when my fellow Amigos suggested that I compare what I said back in 2017 about Jack Studnicka to where he is now, I couldn’t resist even though I could have been way off the mark.

So, lets go back to March 5, 2017 when I first wrote this:

I don’t believe Studnicka is an offense first player, which I see tagged to him plenty. He puts as much attention to detail on the defensive side as he does on the offense. He plays in all situations and takes key faceoffs for the Generals. He’s quietly become the Generals’ top face off man at 53%. It’s his extremely high compete level that makes him pay attention at both ends.

Studnicka has good size – although adding bulk will be key for him. He is an excellent skater who has an explosive first step and decent top end speed who can change direction with ease. He possesses very good vision with high quality playmaking skills with an ability to set up his teammates. His shot is underrated in my opinion. His release is deceptive and accurate and he puts every shot on goal with a purpose.

Studnicka can be elusive in the offensive zone. He can break away from coverage almost undetected and put himself into scoring positions. He has very good puck skills and strong possession skills. Although he needs to add some muscle, he will not shy away from the hard areas. Once he gets stronger, it will become an area where he wins more often than he loses because of it – and his work ethic.

If anything has changed in three years its that he has improved even on the skills he was already good at. Yes, he was deemed as just an offensive player in many circles back then, but not to these eyes. What has impressed me most is that he continues to put the work in, even in areas he excels at. And that continued work defensively has only made him stronger in that area. He was one of the best penalty killers in the AHL and while he took care of his own zone, he was a threat to score while down a man each and every time.

While he was already a “polished” skater in the faceoff circle, that wasn’t enough for Captain Jack. Much like Patrice Bergeron – he has similar traits to the Bruins Alternate Captain – he continues to work at it to become even better. For Studnicka, like Bergeron, good is just never good enough.

All that hard work has paid off for Studnicka as he quickly moved up to the top of the Bruins prospect rankings, something I am sure even Jack didn’t think would happen this quickly.

If there is one area that I would have liked to see accelerated in this process, it’s adding bulk to his frame. While every part of his game – the IQ, vision, skating, 200-foot game, faceoff success, offense, penalty killing – are NHL ready, adding some extra bulk to his frame this offseason will prepare him for the long grind of the NHL season.

With the extra long offseason for Studnicka, the opportunity is there to put in the work. What we do know 100%, is that he will put in that work.

2019 NHL Draft: B’s go with Beecher in 1st round

VANCOUVER–The Boston Bruins selected U.S. National Team Development Program forward John Beecher with the 30th overall selection in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.

As highlighted in the Bruins draft preview piece at this blog, Beecher made sense for the organization on several levels: he’s a big-bodied, versatile forward who can fly (given his big 6-foot-3 frame) and while his skills/overall NHL ceiling as a scoring forward is still up in the air, he’s someone who is going to play in the league because of his pure physical tools.

Here’s more on Beecher from Dom and Kirk:

Dominic Tiano:

Don’t look at the stat sheet and assume John Beecher can’t put up points since he didn’t get the quality ice time to produce with the USDP. That question will be answered as he progresses.  He’s a big body at 6’3” and 209 pounds who possesses superb skating abilities and great top-notch speed. His first steps could use some improvement, but when he hits full speed its excellent.

Beecher is accomplished defensively, knowing his positioning, with good anticipation, good at getting in lanes and willing to battle. If you need a key defensive faceoff win, then he is usually the guy his coaches send over the boards for the puck drop.

I think Beecher’s compete level and his vision is average. For a guy his size, I’d like to see him get in on the forecheck and bang bodies and get more involved in the cycle game. However, what he does do in the offensive zone well is find lanes and soft spots that allow his teammates to find him. He’s an average passer and playmaker so his mentality is to score. Obviously with his size, when he is planted in front of the goal, he’s hard to move, and he can take away a goaltender’s eyes. He protects the puck extremely well and drives possession. Also, very good at gaining the blueline.

I think he projects as a third line center who can kill penalties and you can trust to be defensively responsible. If he can develop more offense with the University of Michigan, that’ll be a bonus. But he and the team might be better served if he transitioned to the wing and with a playmaker, might surprise and could be a second liner.

Can’t expect more from the 30th overall pick.

Kirk Luedeke:

I had Sioux City RW Bobby Brink rated higher here, but Beecher is a Boston-type player for his size/skating combo and it isn’t like he doesn’t have the skill set to evolve into a scoring forward at the NHL level- we have to remember that playing behind major league talents like Jack Hughes and Trevor Zegras meant that Beecher was going to see less playing time and very little PP opportunities on a loaded USA team.

When he gets going, he’s a load to contain, and there is an impressive high floor with Beecher in terms of a late-1st rounder who is going to play upwards of 500 or more games in the NHL because he brings the size/skating combination that will allow him to play up or down the Boston roster eventually. Brink, for all of his guts, skills and playmaking ability, represents more risk for the team that selects him in terms of long-term NHL viability because of his lack of size, but let’s face it- he’s going to be off the board very early on Day 2, and the team that gets him is going to have themselves a steal.

Beecher is a very good player- he makes sense for the modern NHL as a big-bodied forward who can really move and might be a little undersold on this end in terms of his scoring ability. Against Omaha as a 16-year-old in the 2017-18, he went end-to-end and scored one of the prettier goals you’ll ever see, so he has it in him to make plays at the highest level.

All told, Beecher to the Bruins at 30 was not a surprise. How good a selection it will end up being when all is said and done will be debated because it’s not a high-upside kind of pick, but is still likely to make some hay for the B’s.

Editor’s note- Mea culpa on Beecher’s NCAA commitment- he is going to University of Michigan not Ohio State- sloppy on my part for not verifying. Wolverines are getting a good one.

The Bruins & the Cap- Where do they Stand?

by Dominic Tiano

For the vast majority of hockey fans, the National Hockey League’s Collective Bargaining Agreement and the salary cap can be a nightmare to understand unless you have a law degree from Harvard. Now, I don’t have such a degree, but I do talk to people who work with the CBA and Cap daily and have a good understanding in what the Boston Bruins are facing this upcoming season and beyond.

So here is my take on what General Manager Don Sweeney and cap guru Evan Gold face:

With the announcement by the Bruins yesterday that they have reached a contract agreement with Colby Cave, the Bruins have all their restricted and unrestricted players signed for the 2018-2019 season (at the very least, those they wanted to retain). Unless of course you want to count Rick Nash, who is still undecided if he wants to continue playing because of health issues.

Using CapFriendly as a source, we find the Bruins with $2.95 million in cap space with a 23-man roster. That money can be banked to use throughout the season to add to their current roster, including Nash if he wishes to return to playing hockey and with the Bruins.

Their cap space was reduced for 2018-2019 because of performance bonuses paid out to Charlie McAvoy, Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen that could not have fit under last season and are carried over. Under the CBA, a team can exceed the cap by 7% because of performance bonuses and have it charged to the following season. For 2018-2019, that charge to the cap is $774,000.

Further reducing their cap space is what is often called “dead money” – money paid to players no longer on the roster because they were bought out or the team retained salary in a trade. For 2018-2019, the Bruins are still paying Dennis Seidenberg ($1,166,167 for two more seasons) and Jimmy Hayes (866,667 for one more season) after buying them out. They are also paying Matt Beleskey in a salary retained deal with the New York Rangers $1.9 million for two more seasons, although the numbers could change if the Rangers choose to buyout Beleskey during the second buyout period. That’s just shy of $4 million in “dead money”.

At the end of the 2018-2019 season, the Bruins could be tagged with a bonus overage of just over $3.7 million. Potential bonuses that could be paid out are Zdeno Chara ($1.75 million) McAvoy ($500,000), DeBrusk ($425,000) Heinen ($212,500) and Ryan Donato ($800,000). Based on where the cap is today and barring no roster changes (although there are sure to be callups from Providence when injuries occur further reducing the cap) and that most, if not all those bonuses will be attained, fans and the Bruins can look forward to a bonus overage carried over to the 2019-2020 season. Just how much depends on how much of their current $2.9 million in space is used.

The cap is almost certainly going to rise, either by increased revenue or by the NHLPA invoking the escalator (artificially increasing the cap by 5%). But there is always the possibility that the NHLPA does not invoke the escalator (they’ve done that once in the salary cap era and other times increasing it by less then 5%). Hayes will come off the books, but it still leaves a tad more then $3 million in dead money from the Seidenberg buyout and Beleskey trade.

According to CapFriendly, the Bruins have $16.5 million in cap space for 2019-2020 (if the cap remains stagnant) with 16 players on the roster. Some of those spots could be filled with prospects making the jump from Providence.

But the Bruins have to dish out new contracts to McAvoy, Carlo, Heinen and Donato. And if Big Z decides he wants to play another season, well, that pretty much eats up that $16.5 million with two roster spots left to fill. The problem still lies with how much bonus overage there is going forward and that $16.5 million is directly influenced by that figure.

But, the cap will rise. Whether it rises enough is anyone’s guess.

In the end, there are a lot of “ifs” when looking beyond the upcoming season. The only definitive answer I can give you now is that Sweeney and Gold will get it done.

Dominic Tiano: Does the Loser Point Really Create Parity?

Editor’s note- Dominc Tiano is back with another piece for TSP. This time, he takes a look at the NHL’s current point system and how a modification might better reflect in the league standings. If any general managers are reading, we absolutely would welcome this idea being introduced at the summer GM meetings…just saying!

***

I have long been an opponent of the current point system used in hockey leagues around North America and have been a proponent of the 3-2-1-point system throughout that period. (3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an overtime or shootout win, and 1 point for an overtime or shootout loss).

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Scouting Post Podcast: Dominic Tiano and Reed Duthie on the 2016 NHL Draft OHL edition Pt. 1

So, here we are…the long awaited podcast with two friends and experts on the Ontario Hockey League, Dominic Tiano of OHL Writers and Reed Duthie, play-by-play announcer (for home games) of the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs.

We did 2 hours of material, but breaking it into a pair of one-hour (pretty much) parts, and we’ll start this one with quick intros and then a brief discussion of the 2017 Stanley Cup final series between Pittsburgh and San Jose, recapping keys to success for the Pens and Sharks and then taking a closer look at what the Bruins might need to do to get things back on track.

After that, it’s a holistic focus on the OHL players eligible for the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, starting at the very top with Matthew Tkachuk and getting to Markus Niemelainen before technical difficulties forced a tactical pause.

We’ll be back with part 2 soon so Dom can finish his thoughts on Niemelainen, and then we have an amusing point-counterpoint going on Sean Day between Reed and Dom before we continue the march down the list of OHL prospects.

So regardless of what NHL team you happen to root for, if you want a comprehensive look at the guys coming out of the OHL for this year’s draft, both podcasts are for you!

Will let you listen to this and chew on it for a bit and then will post the second hour of the OHL-centric NHL draft podcast later this weekend.

Oh, and the video was just me being a rookie and not paying attention to what I was doing…part 2 will be audio only, but you’re all stuck looking at half of my face and my shiny bald head for most of this…apologies!