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Boston Bruins, Boston Bruins Historical Series, Brad Marchand, Colin Miller, Dougie Hamilton, MIlan Lucic, Tuukka Rask , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1 Comment

Friday Flashback: Bruins 2006 Draft

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Here’s a comprehensive look at the 2006 Boston Bruins draft, which transformed the franchise in a single weekend of picks and one major trade. Other than 1979, there isn’t a more impactful single draft in team history, though 1980 was quite strong, along with 2014 more recently. Here you go- KL

Brad_Marchand

(Photo courtesy of Alison M. Foley)

The Boston Bruins franchise was in disarray at the conclusion of the 2005-06 hockey season and faced a crucial crossroads leading up to the entry draft being in Vancouver that June.

A year that began with promise with the return of NHL hockey after a lockout cancelled the 2004-05 big league campaign descended into chaos and despair when a series of big-money free agent signings went bust (Alexei Zhamnov, Brian Leetch, Dave Scatchard) and franchise face Joe Thornton was traded to San Jose before December for the kind of return that ultimately sealed Mike O’Connell’s (Cohasset, Mass.) fate as Bruins GM. O’Connell’s departure opened the door for one-time Harvard hockey captain Peter Chiarelli’s ascension as the B’s new chief of management and operations, but as the assistant GM of the Ottawa Senators, the job of riding herd over Boston’s 2006 draft and early phases of free agency fell to O’Connell’s interim replacement, Jeff Gorton.

 Thanks to a win by the Columbus Blue Jackets on the final day of the 2005-06 regular season, the Bruins slid into the fifth overall draft position (not affected by the draft lottery, won by St. Louis).  Two points are what separated the B’s from Phil Kessel and someone else (Derick Brassard went one selection later at sixth overall). Kessel may no longer be with the Bruins, but his impact will likely be felt in the years to come, even if the jury is still out on the players received from Toronto and then Dallas last summer.

The B’s former chief amateur scout and current director of player personnel, Scott Bradley, called 2006 a “historic” draft year and critical moment for the rebuilding of the once proud franchise’s sagging fortunes. Little did Bradley know at the time that his words would prove to be prophetic, and that just five years later, the club would reverse direction from the road to ruin to Stanley Cup glory in the very city the draft occurred, defeating the Vancouver Canucks in an epic seven-game championship series.

Boston’s selections in the second and third rounds were instrumental in the 2011 Stanley Cup championship and run to the 2013 Stanley Cup final: Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand, while No. 1 goaltender Tuukka Rask’s history is inextricably linked to the 2006 draft as well. Although Lucic was traded five years ago, Marchand has ascended to NHL superstardom, as has Rask, who could be in line to collect the second Vezina Trophy of his career after a shortened 2019-20 season. Marchand and Rask helped lead the B’s to within one win of the 2019 Stanley Cup championship, though they fell short at home to the St. Louis Blues.

Nearly a decade-and-a-half later, Boston’s 2006 draft is still making a direct and indirect impact on the team’s fortunes.

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Boston Bruins, Boston Bruins Heroes, Boston Bruins Historical Series, Boston Bruins prospects, Charles McAvoy, David Pastrnak, Dougie Hamilton, Jake DeBrusk, Joe Thornton, John Beecher, Malcolm Subban, NHL Entry Draft, Ray Bourque, Terry O'Reilly, Zachary Senyshyn , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 5 Comments

Best and Worst Bruins Draft Picks 1-30; 1963-2019

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Thornton

I recently posted this to the Bruins sub-Reddit- and thought it deserved a place on my blog.

Took a swing at the Boston Bruins historical draft choices, analyzing the team’s selections since the NHL implemented a rudimentary draft system 56 years ago. Bear in mind that in the pre-1969 years, the draft was different- starting in 1963 thru 1978 it was called the amateur draft before changing to the NHL Entry Draft in 1979 when the teams were allowed to draft 18-year-olds. With fewer teams in the 60’s, 70’s & 80’s, selections outside of 10-20 were 2nd round or later, but for purpose of exercise, I’m going to look at picks 1-30 and call it like I see it.

I’m bucking convention by starting out with 1st overall and work up to 30- in a lot of cases, the early selections for the B’s have not been kind, but in full context- most of the time the team was picking 3-7, it came in the days before the current draft system. And because the B’s had made the playoffs from 1968-97, unless they owned bad teams’ 1st rounders, they rarely got a chance to pick inside the top-10 during that time frame.

1- Best: Joe Thornton, 1997: 1st ballot HHOFer- nuf ced; Trading him opened the door for Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard to join the B’s in 2006, but he’s been everything Jumbo Joe was projected to be as a teen titan with the Soo Greyhounds in 1997. He just turned 40 in July, which, given the shaggy, golden-locked kid who showed up in Boston 22 years ago at not quite 18, seems impossible to square with the grizzled graybeard who has been with the San Jose Sharks for nearly a decade and a half.

Worst: Barry Gibbs, 1966: Journeyman defenseman. He at least played in the NHL to the tune of 796 career games, most of them not with the Bruins. However, Gibbs leads the No. 1 overall bust hit parade not because of what he did, but because of the player who was selected right behind him at No. 2 in ’66 by the NY Rangers. Wait for it…Brad Park. Can you imagine Bobby Orr and Brad Park together on the Boston blue line? It actually happened for a handful of games right before Orr left for the Windy City, but had they been able to play together in their primes, we’re talking at least 2 more Stanley Cups in that era. Yikes. (H/T to Reddit user Timeless_Watch for pointing this out- I moved Kluzak down to HM)

HM: Gord Kluzak, 1982: Oh what could have been? What if…B’s had drafted Brian Bellows or Scott Stevens there instead of Kluzak? Kluzak had knee injuries in junior hockey days and then got blown up in his 2nd NHL season- without the technology to repair knees that we have today, it doomed him to being day-to-day for the rest of his career and an early retirement. He should have been a long-tenured NHL defenseman, but it didn’t happen for him, and unfortunately, he’s more of a footnote in Bruins lore, which is unfortunate.

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2019 offseason, Boston Bruins, Brendan Gaunce, Brett Ritchie, Connor Clifton, David Backes, Don Sweeney, Maxime Lagace, Noel Acciari, Par Lindholm, Ryan Fitzgerald, Zane McIntyre , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2 Comments

NHL Free Agency Day 1: Bruins add depth, Acciari to Panthers

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cropped-fitzgeraldbs.jpg

As expected, the Boston Bruins played on the margins during the NHL’s annual free agent derby July 1, re-signing defenseman Connor Clifton to a three-year pact at a $1M per annum cap hit along with Ryan Fitzgerald (pictured) to a 2-way contract valued at $700k for one year. From the outside of things, the B’s added bottom-line forwards Par Lindholm (Jets and Maple Leafs) to a 2-year NHL deal valued at $850 k per, and Brett Ritchie (Stars) to a 1-year, $1 million contract. The B’s also signed 2012 1st-round forward Brendan Gaunce (Canucks) to a 2-way (700k cap hit) deal, 2011 4th-round defenseman Josiah Didier (Canadiens) to an AHL contract and free agent goalie Maxime Lagace (Golden Knights) 2-way (700k cap hit) to bolster their AHL depth.

Clifton was a no-brainer after his emergence in the Stanley Cup playoffs and to lock him up for 3 years at that price is excellent value. It’s nice to see the local Fitzgerald get another shot to find his way to the Big B’s after being a fourth-round pick in 2013, but the scouts were concerned about his overall speed/pace game and how it would translate to the NHL, and thus far, he’s still fighting to break through.

The B’s also saw their first casualty of the free agency period, as grinder Noel Acciari came to terms on a 3-year/$5 million contract with the Florida Panthers. It’s only a matter of time before we find out where Marcus Johansson will end up, but it won’t be back in Boston.

While the groans in some fan circles are audible- most knowledgeable fans understand that given the current cap situation facing Don Sweeney, there simply wasn’t any room for spending sprees on the open market, especially with three key restricted free agents needing extensions in Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Danton Heinen. The only hope for some additional coin to spend here in July of 2019 was for the B’s to somehow off-load David Backes and the 2 years remaining on his $6M cap hit. Since the deal signed in 2016 was front-loaded, Backes’ contract is appealing to teams looking to get to the cap floor whose operating budgets are lower than the richer teams in that the cap hit is higher than the money owed, but it’s easier said than done. Of course, with other teams around the league moving bad contracts, it’s natural for B’s fans to want the same- it always takes two to tango and the team is notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to behind-the-scenes negotiations, so good luck finding out what if any overtures were made in this regard. Barring a trade of some fashion, whether Backes or somewhere else on the roster, there simply wasn’t any money to spend on over-priced free agents. And there won’t be much to handle next year’s more challenging roster turbulence.

Fast food mentality ain’t gonna work here, folks- instead of being envious of the huge contracts being handed out around the league today, set your sights to 2020 and the longer game. It never ceases to amaze that so many of the nimrods out there clamoring for the B’s to be players in an annually inflated free agent market will be the first to turn on the GM when said player(s) don’t live up to their big cap numbers. Truth in lending- TSP was bullish on Backes three years ago in the face of some pointed criticisms elsewhere. In hindsight, the fears (at the time) have come to fruition- there’s not much tread left on the tire, and Backes, as tremendous a character/glue guy as he is, hamstrings the B’s for two more years at $6M per. Teams are better to invest in their own players and leave the madness of the UFA market to others who will be doomed to repeat history because they aren’t learning from it.

Think of all the NHL teams today who worked so hard to clear cap space only to fill it up again. Now, in some cases- the signings look smart and should pay dividends (Lehner- CHI; Donskoi- COL; Hartman- MIN; Perry- DAL; Spezza- TOR to name a few). Others are courting major disaster (Bobrovsky- FLA 10M cap hit? For 7 years?? Wow!!; Stralman- FLA; Zuccarello- MIN; Hayes- PHI delayed reaction from 19 June signing & Erik Karlsson’s big pay day as he approaches 30 with a lot of wear and tear on his slight frame). But, if we’ve learned one thing over the past several years, there always seems to be a GM or three out there who will bail some of their spendthrift counterparts out by taking on the remainders of bad contracts handed out on credit.

We learned the lesson with Backes- character matters, but up to a point. You have to balance that with a more realistic assessment of your ROI- return on investment. We all wanted Backes to be successful in Boston, but the warning signs were there. In the end, he’s a player more suited to the NHL of yesteryear…it sucks to say it, but as some predicted three years ago, that contract is, in fact, an albatross. And we’ll have to see what the B’s are able to do about it with 24 more months left on the term.

Now, on to the new guys:

Center Par Lindholm spent the season between Toronto and Winnipeg after signing with Toronto a year ago, and the move makes sense if you believe the rumors that the B’s are shopping Joakim Nordstrom.

Lindholm is an intelligent 200-foot pivot with a wealth of Swedish pro experience, but didn’t play much in his first North American season in the NHL. He’s not a dynamic offensive player and more of a Swiss Army Knife/Jack of All Trades type. He typically played less than 10 minutes a game for the Leafs and Jets, so if you noticed him much, then you’re a far better judge of talent than we are.

We’ll chalk this one up as a wait-and-see kind of addition, as it smacks of a set-up for something else to happen on the roster…otherwise, color us perplexed as to where this player fits in the B’s lineup when all is said and done.

Here’s an informative article on him out of Winnipeg from a month ago…

Brett Ritchie comes to the B’s from the only organization he ever knew- the Dallas Stars- who drafted him in the second round of the 2011 lottery. Interestingly enough, when the rumors of Tyler Seguin being dealt to Dallas first came to light, we (that is Kirk) thought that Ritchie might have been one of the prospect pieces included in that ill-fated trade that is coming up on 6 years old.

We’d like to say that the 26-year-old is on the verge of busting out, but the reality is- he’s a big-bodied (6-4/220) forward who never really developed into the player he looked like he could be in his draft season with the OHL’s Niagara Ice Dogs. While not a bad skater, he has trouble separating and is at his best when his team has possession in the offensive zone and he can get to quiet ice/doesn’t have to win footraces to loose pucks.

Posting a career 0.22 points-per-game average with the Stars in 241 career contests (plus 3 playoff games), Ritchie has always had decent possession numbers in Dallas, and looks to be the kind of player at even strength that the B’s are trying to bring in to improve their overall 5v5 play. The problem is- because they don’t have a lot of money to spend in free agency this summer, they’re forced to bring in a low-end producer like Ritchie who fits that heavy, hard-to-play-against style the team loves in its forwards, but simply doesn’t have the production to indicate that he will suddenly find a scoring touch in Boston.

We suppose the B’s could do worse here, but we hope they will find a way to do better! Ritchie is a role player and not much more than that- 1 year and $1M isn’t going to break the bank, but since posting a career-best 16 goals in 2016-17,  he’s only managed 11 total in the last 124 games/ two campaigns. He’s an offensive upgrade on Acciari, but not by much- what is the real play here as it pertains to the B’s roster?

Here’s something a little dated (written a year ago) on Ritchie from a Dallas perspective.

Brendan Gaunce is like Ritchie-light…he was Vancouver’s 1st-round pick in 2012, selected just after the B’s drafted his Belleville (OHL) teammate Malcolm Subban…and he was a guy we had time for as a Bruins draft option that year. Big and has some skill with a high motor and leadership, Gaunce, who was once the 2nd overall selection of the Bulls in the OHL draft, has been an utter disappointment at the NHL level.

He’s the classic looks like a player prospect who didn’t ever develop into one despite a willingness to drive the net and compete/be effective on the walls and on the cycle. He’s not a snarly, in-your-face physical type and ultimately, that plus a lack of skill to establish himself on the top-two lines in Vancouver spelled the end for him in his first NHL organization. He’s going to be a good add in Providence, and his NHL ceiling might be that of a Tim Schaller if he can somehow get his foot in the door, but even that’s probably a stretch.

Here’s an article on Gaunce when news broke he would not be qualified by the Canucks:

Max Lagace and Josiah Didier– The B’s needed a minor league veteran to replace Zane McIntyre, who left the B’s to sign with the Canucks after being drafted by Boston in 2010.

Lagace has 17 career games in the NHL all with Vegas, and was pressed into emergency duty in 2017-18 when the Knights went through an unbelievable rash of injuries at the goaltender position. He’s not an NHL regular but will provide good insurance down in the AHL, as Providence probably can’t afford to hand the keys to a Daniel Vladar/Kyle Keyser tandem and needs a third/emergency goalie to backfill the second season of Tuukka Rask/Jaroslav Halak.

Didier, who was a 4th-round project pick out of the USHL’s Cedar Rapids Rough Riders by Montreal in 2011 and played for current Dallas HC Jim Montgomery at the University of Denver, just won a Calder Cup with the Charlotte Checkers in the AHL and is another experienced winner who will bolster the Providence blue line and help Boston’s younger players develop.

The final word: The real value to the Bruins will come when their key RFA’s sign. Don’t cry for the big name UFAs, Argentina…the truth is- they were never really in play for Boston.

Everyone likes their shiny new toys and wants their favorite team to be in the mix to get the name guys on July 1st, but in most cases, the big spenders are left with a serious case of buyer’s remorse. Last year, Sweeney hit the middle tier market and did well, but you can’t step up to the plate year after year and pay market prices for the talent out there and expect to keep the real gems in your organization.

It’s like a high interest credit card- you get some immediate satisfaction in the form of landing a brand name that the hockey media will buzz about, but in 3-4 years, who did that phat free agent contract cost you, and was it worth it?

Something tells us that Sweeney knows that, and also realizes he will have to find another route to upgrading the second-line right wing. How soon it happens and what form the next addition(s) takes is sure to dominate social media from here on, but anyone who knows how the cycle goes in the NHL understood that the B’s weren’t going to make waves today…whether they moved Backes or not.

As for Acciari, he came to his childhood favorite team as an undrafted free agent and did a solid job on the fourth line. He represents decent but not good value for the Panthers, but the reality is- they need more guys like the former Providence College captain, whereas the Bruins have more than enough of those players already. We wish him well as he moves on to his new team and a solid payday.

2016-17 AHL season, 2016-17 CHL season, 2016-17 Europe Pro season, 2016-17 NCAA season, 2016-17 USHL season, Boston Bruins prospects, Zachary Senyshyn , 6 Comments

Bruins prospects update 1/16/17: Senyshyn maintains blistering pace with 5th hat trick

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Zachary Senyshyn of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds. Photo by Terry Wilson/OHL Images.

Zachary Senyshyn Photo credit: Aaron Bell/OHL Images

Zach Senyshyn couldn’t catch a break. Now, nobody seems to be able to cause him to break stride, as he tallied all three Soo Greyhounds goals in a major 3-2 OT home win against the OHL powerhouse London Knights for his fifth three-goal game (one of those was a 4-goal “Texas hat trick” because everything is bigger in the Lone Star State, you know) of the season.

 

Back in July, Senyshyn wasn’t able to participate in Bruins development camp because he was recovering from a bout with mononucleosis. Then, before the start of rookie camp in September, the team announced that he had undergone an emergency appendectomy and was going to miss the second annual futures mini-tourney in Buffalo.

To top it off, the 15th overall pick in 2015 struggled to score out of the gate, not surprising for someone recovering from an appendectomy, who had also had his offseason conditioning work interrupted by mono. After a mundane October and November, Senyshyn got himself firmly on terra firma in December and hasn’t looked back since, now sitting with 27 goals in 34 games with the Greyhounds. For perspective, in his draft year, he had 26 in 66 contests as a fourth-liner. And that, folks, is what we in these here parts call…progress.

What’s more, this latest three-goal game featured the 19-year-old scoring all of them in different ways- he’s not a one-trick pony. He can blow the puck past a goalie with a wicked shot from the outside, or he can drive the net and put away the garbage. He’s got a nifty backhand that he can use to good effect and Senyshyn has demonstrated repeatedly that he handles the puck well in tight when he doesn’t have a lot of space to operate in. If you aren’t encouraged by the numbers and the breakdown, then you might want to consider renting a room from Mr. Grinch.

(Editor’s note- you can watch highlights of the latest hatty here courtesy of Soo Greyhounds): http://soogreyhounds.com/video/watch-jan-1517-ldn-2-ssm-3-ot

But, but…he didn’t make Team Canada at the World Jrs! Sputter those with agendas to see the young man fail. We don’t know about you, but while watching that tremendous gold medal match between the USA and Canada, we couldn’t help but think that the Canadians sure could have used a 6-3, 200-pound winger who can flat-out fly down the wing and score goals…especially in that 20-minute up-and-down overtime period. We’ll never know, but one has to believe that Hockey Canada can only rue the decision to leave him home. Regardless, anyone who tries to argue that because Canada made a bad choice means the Bruins did too (by drafting Senyshyn ahead of several players who couldn’t get it done at the WJC), only looks more and more foolish as time goes on.

He sits just one marker away from netting 100 goals in his OHL career. In fact, since the B’s drafted him to great fanfare (tongue firmly planted in cheek there), Senyshyn has 72 goals in 100 games with the Greyhounds. If that sounds like pretty good numbers to you, that’s because they are. Tyler Seguin had 69 goals in 124 career OHL games before Boston made him the second overall pick in 2010. Now, we’re not saying that Senyshyn is going to be the star scorer in the NHL that Seguin is, but if you do believe that there is a correlation between two players coming out of the same developmental junior league, then there is reason to believe that Senyshyn will find a way to put the puck in the net at the NHL level.

This is not to say that he’s ready for primetime and will be an immediate impact player at the highest level. It’s too early to be projecting whether Senyshyn will be able to break camp with the Big Bruins next fall. What we do know is that he’ll have to finish his season in the OHL before he does anything else. With the Soo Greyhounds sitting near the top of the league standings, they’re expected to go far in their quest for the 2017 Memorial Cup, which is bad news for B’s fans hoping to see him in Providence at the end of the AHL regular season. Barring an upset, the soonest we can expect to see him either in Boston or on the top farm club is next fall, but for now- enjoy the fireworks.

***

2016 fifth-rounder Cameron Clarke scored his 1st NCAA goal for the Ferris State Bulldogs in 2017. The NAHL’s top defenseman a year ago with the Lone Star Brahmas (in Fort Worth, TX), Clarke is a late-bloomer (he’ll turn 21 and was taken in his final window of draft eligibility) from Michigan who has good height, vision and hands to move pucks effectively. He’s a project pick and will take a while to get there (if he ever does), but thus far, is doing all right in his first taste of NCAA hockey.

 

Statistics as of 1/16/17

Amateur (junior/NCAA) prospects

Name/Team League GP G A PTS PIM
Zach Senyshyn, SSM OHL 34 27 11 38 23
Jesse Gabrielle, Prince George WHL 37 21 16 37 54
Anders Bjork, Notre Dame HE-NCAA 23 15 20 35 8
Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, BU HE- NCAA 20 9 12 21 16
Jakub Zboril, Saint John QMJHL 24 6 13 19 16
Ryan Donato, Harvard

 

 ECAC- NCAA 16 9 8 17 10
Ryan Fitzgerald, BC HE-NCAA 18 5 12 17 24
Trent Frederic, Wisconsin Big10- NCAA 12 5 10 15 12

 
Cameron Hughes, Wisconsin

 

 Big10- NCAA 18 3 12 15 6
Charlie McAvoy, BU HE-NCAA 19 3 11 14 18
Jeremy Lauzon, Rouyn-Noranda

 

 QMJHL 15 2 10 12 8
Jack Becker, Sioux Falls

 

 USHL 28 6 5 11 28
Cameron Clarke, Ferris St.

 

 WCHA- NCAA 24 1 5 6 24
Wiley Sherman, Harvard

 

 ECAC-NCAA 16 0 4 4 10
Ryan Lindgren, Minnesota

 

 Big10- NCAA 17 1 2 3 51

 

Pro and European Prospects

Name/Team League GP G A PTS PIM
Joona Koppanen, Ilves Jr.* U20- Finland 19 9 17 26 2
Peter Cehlarik, Providence

 

 AHL 33 14 10 24 12
Danton Heinen, Providence

 

 AHL 27 8 12 20 4
Jake DeBrusk, Providence AHL 39 10 10 20 11

 
Colby Cave, Providence

 

 AHL 39 8 12 20 24
Matt Grzelcyk, Providence

 

 AHL 33 2 14 16 12
Sean Kuraly, Providence

 

 AHL 30 6 8 14 17
Emil Johansson, Djurgarden IF

 

 Sweden- Elite 30 5 7 12 16
Colton Hargrove, Providence

 

 AHL 32 4 8 12 33
Anton Blidh, Providence#

 

 AHL 21 6 4 10 22
Rob O’Gara, Providence*

 

 AHL 26 2 3 5 4
Austin Czarnik, Providence#

 

 AHL 2 1 2 3 0
Justin Hickman, Providence

 

 AHL 16 2 1 3 15
Chris Casto, Providence

 

 AHL 31 0 3 3 28
Noel Acciari, Providence AHL 7 0 2 2 5
Oskar Steen, Farjestad

 

 Sweden- Elite 31 1 1 2 4
Linus Arnesson, Providence*

 

 AHL 18 0 1 1 4
Brian Ferlin, Providence*

 

 AHL 2 0 0 0 0
Zane McIntyre, Providence#

Atlanta

 

 AHL

ECHL

 12

2

 10

0

 0

1(1)

 1.41

1.99

 .951

.931
Dan Vladar, Providence

Atlanta

 

 AHL

ECHL

 6

5

 3

2

 0 (3)

2 (1)

 2.84

3.58

 .914

.889
Malcolm Subban, Providence

 

 AHL 17 4 9 (4) 2.96 .905

# Czarnik, Blidh, McIntyre recalled to Boston

*Injured

Tyler Randell, Tommy Cross, Alex Grant > age 25- not liste

2015-16 Bruins Offseason, 2016 NHL free agency, Jimmy Vesey , , , , , Leave a comment

The pitch

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Veseyphotoshop

Could Jimmy Vesey be a Boston Bruin by week’s end? We’ll know the answer soon enough. (Found this on the Internet somewhere but don’t know who to credit for it)

 

 

 

 

Harvard captain and unrestricted free agent Jimmy Vesey met with several NHL teams yesterday (Toronto, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Pittsburgh were among those reported) and he’ll meet with more today. The New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks are reportedly on the list and we’ll be able to confirm that a little later.

We’ve heard that the hometown Boston Bruins are going to be the last team to make the case, which is a nice situation to be in, but in itself is no real indicator of where the skilled offensive left wing will end up.

By virtue of the NHL’s CBA, the money every team can offer him is essentially the same, assuming they max out the base salary and performance bonus structure. Per General Fanager, those amounts are:  2 years at a base (max) salary of $925,000, $3.775M AAV ($832,500 salary +$92,500 signing bonus; $2.85M performance bonuses). The 925k is your cap hit this year and those performance bonuses could roll over into next year’s cap hit for the team that signs him if he were to do what Artemi Panarin accomplished in Chicago en route to the 2016 Calder Trophy.

That means it pretty much comes down to the various pitches and the opportunities the teams lay out for Vesey.

Were I the Bruins general manager, I would adopt a “less is more” approach here as it pertains to Vesey. The obvious small peanuts move is to bring a No. 19 Bruins jersey with his name on it to the meeting. Only 2 players have worn those digits in Boston since the 2000-01 season: Joe Thornton and Tyler Seguin. It’s not about why both players left…Vesey is well aware of the history. However, he idolized Thornton as a youngster. It’s an obvious tactic designed to connect to the kid in him and the exclusivity by which the B’s have limited that number over the years carries its own appeal. But no hockey jersey, regardless of the history behind it, is going to close a deal, and whether teams make videos or bring in players to help make their case, all of that is just window dressing. In the end, the GMs will have to walk a fine line between keeping it simple and making a cogent argument that will appeal to the pragmatist in him, and also making an important connection to his personality and values. The Sabres have the advantage here, because they’re the ones who have had about two months to make that connection and also have the benefit of Vesey’s friendship with NHL superstar-in-waiting Jack Eichel.

Boston doesn’t have those advantages but bring a different edge to the table, so for me,  the pitch is relatively simple.

After laying out the obvious opportunities Vesey will have to succeed with the Bruins organization and committing the max dollars like everyone else, selling him on staying home comes down to a relatively direct but earnest message:

Jimmy-

You grew up dreaming of this opportunity (to play for the Bruins) and now, you’re in a position to choose where you begin your NHL career. Not everyone has the power of choice, so we respect where you are and what you have done to bring us to this moment together.

Other teams have undoubtedly made convincing arguments for why you should choose them, and you’re facing the most difficult decision of your life thus far. As we finish up the last of your meetings before you decide, we’d like to leave you with this:

Boston offers you one thing no other team can, and that is the certainty that comes with knowing you achieved your childhood dream. Not choosing the Bruins means that you might go through life wondering what it would have been like to play here if you had only made a different decision. Choosing Boston means that regardless of what happens, you will never have questions about what could have been, and we believe you’ll have no regrets that you chose to stay home and join the legacy that your father is also a part of.

It isn’t easy playing in your hometown and dealing with the various pressures that come with high expectations along with the scrutiny and attention you’ll get because of the many accomplishments you bring with you. However, you’ve also demonstrated that you have the maturity to handle those challenges and become every bit the player and person so many believe you will be. We believe in you, and we want you to be a part of the next big revival period of Boston Bruins hockey. You’ve talked to your friends inside the organization and you know that over the past three or four drafts, we’re building the right group of talented and committed players. We want you to be a part of this resurgence.

Your head might tell you that other cities and teams can offer you more reasons to go there and wear different colors than the black and gold, but you also have a chance to listen to your heart as you make your final decision.

We believe your heart is telling you to be a Boston Bruin and we’re prepared to help you realize that dream.

That’s it.

That’s all.

In my experience it really comes down to that, and it’s not about overselling or underselling. It’s about trying to establish a connection and speak to what will ultimately drive the decision. Money and opportunity are important, but they won’t guarantee success or happiness. Talk is cheap, but blood is thicker than water, and following in his dad’s footsteps while playing close to family and friends is a powerful lure.

I believe that all things being equal- Vesey has the desire to play in Boston. His family is here, and his dad comes from humble roots in Charlestown. Injuries prevented him from making the mark he could have at the NHL level, but Jimmy has a chance to do much more at this level, and I suspect that fact is not lost on Jim Vesey, Sr.

I also think that there is a lot of white noise and distractors out there that could be steering young Vesey away from Boston. The talk of the external pressures and distractions that come with being such a high-profile player from the area is real, but in my view- too much is being made of the concerns and what-if’s. There are no doubt several convincing arguments to be made that he’s better off playing elsewhere, but if a decision to reject the chance to play for the Bruins is based on trivial reasons such as being pressed by ticket requests or a fear of being criticized on sports radio and television, then maybe it is for the best that he begin his NHL career elsewhere.

Knowing Jimmy over the years, I believe he wants to embrace a real challenge over an easier path- his success has been fueled by adversity. Staying home does present certain negatives that playing in a place like Newark, N.J. doesn’t, but the reward and payoff should he prove himself to be the player in the NHL that he’s been at Harvard is enormous as a member of the Bruins versus the Devils, Rangers, Sabres or anywhere else. Does he want to stay in Boston enough to accept the identified risk that comes with the spotlight and possible friction that Jimmy Hayes was a source of last season?

That’s a question only Vesey can answer, and after today, we’ll soon find out.

***

Separate from the above post, going to hop on the soapbox for a bit and share some thoughts and observations on what I’ve been seeing lately, especially on Twitter…

It’s a shame that there is so much hype surrounding Vesey and that invariably, he’s started to get a backlash from people tired of hearing about it and of course- the element of folks out there who are holding against him that he’s leveraging a collectively bargained right. It’s more than a little silly, especially since we’re about giving the people what they want, and in the modern information age, what the people want is almost always an over saturation of  stories and angles. They want to know exactly how it’s all going to end beforehand. We ourselves encourage paralysis by analysis in places like Twitter and internet message boards. So, why is anyone surprised that a player who has scored more than 50 goals and 100 points in the past two NCAA seasons is generating so much attention?

The fact is- NHL teams don’t get an opportunity to sign a player of Vesey’s potential every year, so when someone with his talent and upside comes along, there’s an obvious desire for coverage commensurate with storylines that develop when multiple cities pursue someone on the open market. Jimmy Vesey didn’t create this animal, but he’s required to feed it.

Signing Vesey is not a gamble, either- a gamble is when you leave something to pure chance. He’s given multiple indications that he will be a successful NHL player. No, signing Vesey is taking a risk– teams are accepting that by committing max dollars to him and inserting him into the lineup ahead of others in the pecking order, they might upset the apple cart. You can argue that he’s not worth that risk, and it’s a fair assessment, but it isn’t like he’s a middling player, either. Instead of playing a game of false equivalencies like comparing him to some of the game’s icons (no one with any credibility is doing that, btw) or asserting that signing him means the Bruins (or any other team) are automatically Stanley Cup contenders, why not just settle in and see where this all takes us? Yes, there is a lot of hype around this player, and that’s also the reality we’re living in circa 2016.

Again- it isn’t Vesey’s fault that we live in an age where every single move is scrutinized to the nth degree. If he and his representation refused to answer questions about what they were doing, then people would criticize that and wonder what he was hiding. And let’s be fair and honest about this- Vesey isn’t the only one talking about his situation. Sources within the teams are telling reporters about meeting schedules and how interested their clubs are in his services. That’s not Vesey’s doing, but he’s the one taking the heat for feeding the beast.

Come the weekend, we’ll be glad the saga is over because it really has gone on too long. It’s just unfortunate that some out there simply can’t resist making someone out to be the villain in any story. If anything, Vesey is an example of facing adversity and rejection by being completely passed over in 2011 and turning that into a bidding war unlike any other we have seen surrounding a player who has yet to skate an NHL shift to date.

Right, wrong or indifferent- it will all be over soon and then we can look forward to seeing what all the fuss was about.

The prediction here is that while it may or may not come to the fore right away, Vesey will prove himself to be an NHL asset and fans will eventually get why he was so sought after.

2015-16 NHL season, 2016 Bruins Offseason, Boston Bruins , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1 Comment

2015-16 Boston Bruins in Red Line over the years

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I have every Red Line Report draft guide going back to 1999, the first year that the service issued the guide in its known format.

Periodically, I go back and look at what the draft year scouting reports and rankings looked like, so I thought that to help get the juices flowing in anticipation for the 2016 draft (as if the B’s draft strategy post from last night wasn’t enough, right?) I’d do the exercise for all of you here on the blog and take a trip in the wayback machine (or in the case of David Pastrnak– not so wayback) and see what you all think.

I’ll do it in numerical order on the Boston roster, so here we go:

11- Jimmy Hayes, RW Drafted: 2008 (2nd round- Toronto)

Red Line ranking: 146

Key comment: “Huge kid with good hands has wasted a lot of talent.”

2016 verdict: At the time, 146 was excessively low for where the Leafs drafted Hayes, but he hasn’t exactly proven RLR wrong, either. Few players did more to frustrate observers this season than Hayes. He’s huge but doesn’t play to his size, but the biggest issue was with how his offense cratered at crunch time. It’s tough to play with heightened expectations and pressures that come with coming home to be on the team you dreamed of skating for, but Hayes has the raw material to at least become a more consistent contributor going forward without the profound peaks and valleys he went through.

14- Brett Connolly, RW Drafted: 2010 (1st round- Tampa Bay)

Red Line ranking: 13

Key comment: “Great talent; only injury keeps him out of top-5.”

2016 verdict: Connolly has been anything but a “great” talent as a pro. It’s hard to fathom where the sixth overall selection six years ago went wrong, but he might be out of time in Boston, even though he only recently turned 24. If the B’s could figure out a way to get him going, it would be huge for them. He’s been a huge disappointment thus far, if not an outright bust given how highly regarded he was by just about everyone in 2010.

20- Lee Stempniak, RW Drafted: 2003 (5th round- St. Louis)

Red Line ranking: Not ranked

2016 verdict: Oversight! Stempniak has been a serviceable NHL winger since breaking in with the Blues in 2005-06 after Dartmouth. He’s played almost 800 career NHL games for 9 teams- the modern-era Brent Ashton.

21- Loui Eriksson, RW/LW Drafted: 2003 (2nd round- Dallas)

Red Line ranking: 59

Key comment: “Came on like gangbusters down the stretch.”

2016 verdict: Eriksson was one of Boston’s top players last season, and despite not being traded at the deadline, was a good Bruin after being the central piece in the disastrous Tyler Seguin return from 2013. At 31, he’s set to cash in on a free agent payday, which means it won’t happen in Boston, but he’s performed well ahead of the 59th overall projection from 13 years ago.

23- Chris Kelly, C/W  Drafted: 1999 (3rd round- Ottawa)

Red Line ranking: 78

Key comment: “Tenacious and relentless in puck pursuit.”

2016 verdict: Although a broken femur cost Kelly all but 11 games of the 2015-16 season, he has gone on to have a successful NHL career as a checking center who was a key contributor to Boston’s Stanley Cup championship in 2011. The veteran has been a Boston scapegoat because of the 4-year contract extension he got in 2012 coming off a career-best 20 goals, but he’s been pretty much exactly what RLR said he would be and has always brought character and leadership to any team he’s been on.

26- John-Michael Liles, D Drafted: 2000 (5th round- Colorado)

Red Line ranking: 159

Key comment: “Another small offensively-skilled d-man.”

2016 verdict: After being drafted 159th overall, the Avalanche took Liles exactly where RLR had him in their 2000 draft guide. 800 NHL games later, Liles has shown that the size bias that clearly existed 16 years ago had little impact on his ability to play at the highest level. He’s been a successful puck-moving, offensive defenseman over the life of his career, albeit one who is a complementary piece and more of a power play performer than a true difference-maker at present.

29- Landon Ferraro, LW Drafted: 2009 (2nd round- Detroit)

Red Line ranking: 38

Key comment: “Everybody like’s Ray’s kid more than we do.”

2016 verdict: Looks like RLR was onto something…Originally projected as a top-six scorer at the NHL level, Ferraro finally established himself at in the big show after Boston plucked him from the Red Wings off of waivers. However, seven years after being one of the first picks of the second round, he looks like a capable grinder, but has demonstrated none of the impressive upside he had in his draft year with Red Deer. Speedy and smart, Ferraro doesn’t have the high-end skills to be a top scorer, but looks like a solid role player who will likely bounce around.

30- Jeremy Smith, G Drafted:  2007 (2nd round- Nashville)

Red Line ranking: 29

Key comment: “Long, lean flexible netminder is the best of a mediocre crop.”

2016 verdict: Yikes! First-round billing even with that caveat for a player who has yet to play an NHL game. Although, for what it’s worth- Scott Darling is the only goalie of note to come out of the 1989-born class. Smith, who came to Boston as a free agent two years ago, has yet to suit up for an NHL game, although he’s been very good in the AHL.

33- Zdeno Chara, D Drafted: 1996 (3rd round- NY Islanders)

Red Line ranking: not available

2016 verdict: Future HHOFer and Stanley Cup champion has been Boston’s captain since the 6-9 d-man signed a decade ago, but Father Time has caught up to him. The great draft value pick (77th overall) by Mike Milbury 20 years ago turns 40 this season and Boston’s priority must be to surround him with a better supporting cast. Given how low he was out of the radar in Slovakia, it is doubtful he would have been high on anyone’s list back then.

37- Patrice Bergeron, C Drafted: 2003 (2nd round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 71

Key comment: “Not big or fast but smart and productive.”

2016 verdict: Missed opportunity! When I was scouting the U18s with my Red Line boss Kyle Woodlief, the subject of Bergeron came up and he ruefully admitted that he missed on him rankings-wise. Woodlief really liked him (as evidenced by the comment above) but said Bergeron had two things working against him at the time: 1- he had only played the 1 season in the QMJHL in his draft year after spending his 16-YO year in midget AAA; and 2- Acadie-Bathurst is an out-of-the-way hockey backwater. No excuses- RLR got it wrong, but the Bruins and Scott Bradley didn’t, at the time “reaching” for Patrice when other sexier names were available (the team used the compensation pick they got from the NHL when Bill Guerin bolted for Dallas to take Bergeron, btw). He wanted Bergeron in the 1st round that year, but the team knew they could roll the dice and get him at 45 whereas Mark Stuart would not have been there for them in the 2nd. If they had known how important Bergeron would be to this franchise, they never would have risked it, but that’s the draft for you. Bergeron’s #37 will one day hang from the TD Garden rafters, and he’s got a shot at the Hockey Hall of Fame when all is said and done. As Chris Kelly likes to say, Bergeron is Boston’s “Mr Everything”- a modern-day Milt Schmidt if you will.

39- Matt Beleskey, LW Drafted: 2006 (4th round- Anaheim)

Red Line ranking: 122

Key comment: “Playing against him is like nails on a chalkboard.”

2016 verdict: Correctly projected for the draft, but a little low given what he provides as a solid third-liner. After signing as a free agent last July, the former Belleville Bull was arguably Boston’s most consistent player wire-to-wire last season, he delivered what the team was looking for. Obviously, you’d like to see more goals after he topped the 20-goal mark the previous year with the Ducks, but he set a new high in assists and points, provided a large amount of hits and was that gritty leader by example type the Bruins need.

40- Tuukka Rask, G Drafted: 2005 (1st round- Toronto)

Red Line ranking: 14

Key comment: “Wins our annual Mr. Gumby flexibility award.”

2016 verdict: The former Vezina Trophy winner had an up and down season but Carey Price and Rask were RLR’s top goalies in the 2005 draft and that’s how it’s played out in their careers as both have been recognized as the top player at their position (with Price earning a league MVP nod as well). When on top of his game, Rask is an elite puck stopper, but he’s also shown that like most, with a porous defense in front of him, he can’t carry the team on his back. It will be interesting to see what the Bruins do with him in the long term, as he turns 30 next March and will be in the fourth of the seven-year extension he signed in 2013 that is a $7-million annual chunk of change on Boston’s cap.

 

44- Dennis Seidenberg, D Drafted: 2001 (6th round- Philadelphia)

Red Line ranking: Not ranked

2016 verdict: It was a tough season for the game but rapidly declining German. He signed a four-year, $16M extension in the 2013-14 season, only to suffer a catastrophic knee injury shortly thereafter, costing him the rest of the campaign. He hasn’t been the same player since, losing mobility (he wasn’t ever a plus skater to begin with) and effectiveness as an aging defender who struggles to be the effective shutdown presence he was from 2010-14. The B’s could be looking at trading him or buying him out (he has two years remaining on his contract at $4M per), but he’s been counted on to log a lot of minutes on the second pairing without much effectiveness over the last two seasons.

 

45- Joe Morrow, D Drafted: 2011 (1st round- Pittsburgh)

Red Line ranking: 30

Key comment: “Few made bigger strides than this fine puck mover.”

2016 verdict: It looks like RLR had it right, as Morrow has made the NHL and shows flashes, but has not yet established himself as a regular. The Penguins made Morrow their top choice in 2011 (23rd overall) after he impressed with his skating, passing and shot as a member of the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. He was dealt to Dallas for veteran Brenden Morrow (no relation) in 2013. He was then moved to Boston as part of the Seguin trade a few months later on July 4. The skating and the passing are clearly evident, but Morrow has not asserted himself all that much in the Boston lineup, playing a relatively conservative brand of game. The more you watch him, the more you start to come to the conclusion that he’s essentially a complementary 4/5 defender who could thrive on a deeper blue line corps, but isn’t going to emerge as a top performer and one who can carry the mail.

 

46- David Krejci, C Drafted: 2004 (2nd round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 130

Key comment: “Tiny but great hockey sense.”

2016 verdict: Like Bergeron, the B’s got outstanding value from a player who was ranked far too low by Red Line in his draft year. In fact, Krejci wasn’t really regarded by anyone- Central Scouting rated him just 21st overall on their Euro ranking behind such luminaries Rostislav Olesz, Lauri Tukonen, Kirill Lyamin and Sergei Ogorodnikov to name a few. Because Boston had traded their first- and second-round picks that year to Washington for Sergei Gonchar, Krejci’s selection at the end of the second round (from Los Angeles via Detroit for Jozef Stumpel in a deal made a year earlier at the 2003 draft) was met with a collective shrug, but 12 years later, he’s broken into Boston’s all-time top-20 scorers list and has been one of the team’s best offensive players during his tenure. Unfortunately for Krejci, his hot start cooled off considerably, aided by a hip injury that required offseason surgery. Because he’s got a small frame, the physical toll on him is starting to catch up, making his $7.25M annual cap hit and lengthy extension done by Peter Chiarelli in the 2014-15 season something to watch. On sheer achievement alone, however- Krejci’s career numbers (even better in the playoffs when Boston has gotten in) have made his draft rankings look silly. After Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin, who went 1-2 overall that year, Krejci is the third most productive player of the 2004 class.

 

47- Torey Krug, D Undrafted: 2012 (Free Agent- Boston)

Red Line ranking: Not ranked

2016 verdict: The undersized former Michigan State captain posted career highs for assists and points, but his goal totals fell off a cliff, finishing with just four tallies. Despite being a productive defenseman not only in the USHL, where he helped the Indiana Ice win a Clark Cup championship, but in three seasons at Michigan State where he was named captain in just his second year in East Lansing, Krug got nary a sniff on anyone’s rankings. In hindsight, he was dinged for size bias, but has become a go-to player for the Bruins since they signed him in the spring of 2012 and he burst onto the NHL scene against the Rangers in the second round of the 2013 playoffs. He’s due a new contract, but as currently constructed, no one else on the Boston defense can do what Krug can. With the right partner, he could be even more effective and productive than he’s been so far. The low goal totals were an aberration, but consider this- if he had scored his usual 12-15 markers this past season, he’d be in line to get a lot more on his next deal. The down season in goals might be a blessing in disguise for Boston when it comes to negotiations, but anyone who doesn’t think he’ll get $5M at least is fooling themselves. The B’s will pay the market rate and if Minnesota’s Jared Spurgeon got it, so will Krug- he’s a better player.

 

48- Colin Miller, D Drafted:2012 (5th round- Los Angeles)

Red Line ranking: Not ranked

2016 verdict: Swing and a miss for RLR on a player who was first eligible in 2011 and played very little for the Soo Greyhounds but caught the eye of the Kings after attending their development camp and was drafted a year later. Acquired in the Milan Lucic trade, Miller made the big club out of camp but had trouble staying in the lineup. He has some of the most impressive skills of any Boston defenseman but his defensive instincts and decision-making are a work in progress. Many fans wanted “Chiller” in the lineup over Kevan “Killer” Miller, but the Boston coaches saw things differently. The younger Miller has the ever-desired upside, but he’s also got a lot to learn about playing the position, as he was a healthy scratch down in Providence during the season after being sent down. This is the kind of thing that fans sometimes don’t pick up on- it’s one thing for the Boston coaches to pull a player from the lineup, but when the AHL coaches do as well, then there’s obviously something there that the player isn’t doing. Miller still has impressive potential as a late-born 1992, but he benefited from shiny new toy syndrome last year. Now, he needs to work to demonstrate his value and worth as a two-way D, not just someone who can bring the offense.

 

50- Jonas Gustavsson, G Undrafted: 2009 (Free Agent- Toronto)

Red Line ranking: 1*- on RLR draft guide’s top-10 European free agents list

Key comment: “Extremely flexible and smooth side-to-side.”

2016 verdict: “The Monster” was the top free agent target in 2009 and got a big ticket deal with the Leafs, but never really had the kind of anticipated impact given his tremendous performance in Sweden before coming over. Injuries have contributed to him never really establishing himself as a top-flight No. 1 in the NHL, but after being a training camp invite last year, he played well for the Bruins as a backup. It is unfortunate that in the last game of the season against Ottawa, when Rask couldn’t go due to illness and the B’s took a 1-0 lead, that Gustavsson ended up playing a pretty mediocre game. The team collapsed in front of him, but he didn’t do them many favors, either. Don’t expect a reprise for the 31-year-old in Boston this year.

 

51- Ryan Spooner, C Drafted: 2010 (2nd round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 29

Key comment: “Creative playmaker was derailed by injury.”

2016 verdict: A power play weapon, Spooner had his peaks and valleys at even strength but completed his first full NHL season by establishing career highs in all categories. He was drafted 45th overall in 2010, and in retrospect, he should have been picked 32nd overall by Boston with Jared Knight going at 45 (well, if the team had a do-over Knight wouldn’t have been picked at all in the round, but spilt milk). Spooner has outperformed some ranked before him and many after, but it has taken him a while to establish himself in Claude Julien’s system. Truth be told- Bruins fans are fortunate that he’s still in the organization given the way things appeared to be headed in early 2015. He’s got the NHL talent to be a top-two center, but in Boston, he’s got to figure out how to be consistent and impactful as their third-line guy. T’s worth noting that when Krejci was injured in late December and Spooner moved to the second line for several weeks, he played the best NHL hockey of his career.

 

54- Adam McQuaid, D Drafted: 2005 (2nd round- Columbus)

Red Line ranking: 68

Key comment: “Nobody talks about him but he has good raw tools.”

2016 verdict: When it comes to toughness and rugged play on the back end, they don’t come much more game than “Quaider.” He was a surprise late second-round pick by Columbus but his skating was an even bigger issue then than it is now. Facing the prospect of not signing him and losing him to free agency, the Blue Jackets traded McQuaid to Boston in late May, 2007 for a fifth-round pick. That draft choice, subsequently flipped to Dallas, ended up being none other than Jamie Benn. Go figure. McQuaid is a great guy- one of the best I have covered on the Bruins in my 16 years with NEHJ, but he’s limited and has never played a complete, injury-free season. Oh, and he turns 30 in October, too. There have been whispers that at least one NHL team has expressed interest in him, so don’t be surprised to see a trade at some point this offseason. It would at least begin to explain why the Bruins locked up Kevan Miller.

 

62- Zach Trotman, D Drafted: 2010 (7th round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: Not ranked

2016 verdict: The final player selected in the 2010 NHL draft has appeared in games with Boston for each of the past three seasons, but this could be it for the Indiana native and Lake Superior State product. He has NHL size and skating, but found himself often the odd-man out on a crowded blue line with similar mid-to-lower tier defenders who all bring something similar to the table. Trotman worked hard to reach the NHL and is a solid citizen who could hook on in a different organization that has need for his ability as a serviceable role player.

 

63- Brad Marchand, LW Drafted: 2006 (3rd round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 115

Key comment: “Super skilled little waterbug with some jam.”

2016 verdict: Marchand was the team’s best success stories in a tough season after setting personal bests in goals and points. Red Line had him ranked lower than he went (early third round) and Marchand has been the most productive of any player selected in the same round that year. He’s a top performer and goal threat, despite his lack of height and stature. Some of what might have contributed to his lower draft ranking was off-ice/maturity concerns, but to Marchand’s credit, he’s established himself as a Boston regular and fan favorite, albeit one who still lets his emotions get the best of him on occasion, but who has become one of the team’s top performers in the clutch. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2017…cha-ching! Boston can begin negotiating with him this year on an extension to prevent that from happening, but it’s going to cost a lot.

 

64- Tyler Randell, RW Drafted: 2009 (6th round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 164

Key comment: “He will go higher than this but frustrates us greatly.”

2016 verdict: Actually, he went right about where RLR said he should, which is interesting. The late-rounder out of Belleville and Kitchener of the OHL. Randell made his NHL debut for Boston and provided more value for scoring vs. minutes played than anyone in the lineup. Although often a healthy scratch and relegated to bottom line duty, Randell made the most of his gifts: slick hands and toughness. He’s got heavy feet, but hits like a truck and is a good fighter. The knock on him in junior was motivation and consistency, but he put in the work and Boston stuck with him, finally seeing their late-round investment pay some dividends.

86- Kevan Miller, D Undrafted: 2011 (Free agent- Boston)

Red Line ranking: Unranked

2016 verdict: The former Berkshire School and University of Vermont captain (from California) is as tough as nails and willed himself into the NHL after showing little big league potential at the lower levels. When used in the right role, Miller is capable. The challenge for Boston is that injuries and declining play elsewhere in the lineup caused Julien to use Miller in significant situations, and some of his limitations were exposed. For an undrafted free agent, he’s been a pleasant surprise, but without a top skill set, he’s more of a depth player thrust into a bigger role than suits him. That’s an issue.

88- David Pastrnak, RW Drafted: 2014 (1st round- Boston)

Red Line ranking: 14

Key comment: “Smallish, but fiery and passionate. Lives to score.”

2016 verdict: RLR was ahead of the curve here, as Pastrnak slid down to 25th overall mostly because of a concussion that forced him out of the lineup during the key months of Jan-Mar. He made the NHL at age 18 and was a breath of fresh air for the Bruins and their fans in 2015. Last season was a bit of a step back for Pastrnak largely due to a fractured foot suffered on a shot off the skate in late October, but the foundation is in place for the future face of the franchise. He’s got a good attitude and is willing to work- the Bruins just desperately need Pastrnak to continue his upward developmental trajectory and blossom into the 30+ goal man he’s capable of becoming.

Observations:

  1. The glaring thing that sticks out is a lack of production in the Bruins drafts to account for the current roster. Of all the B’s regulars, only one- Pastrnak (14)- carries a top-15 draft ranking by Red Line. Connolly was ranked 13th, but would have carried a higher grade if not for a hip injury that caused him to miss most of the 2009-10 season. Rask was ranked 14th overall in 2005, but he was drafted by Toronto at 21st overall- just one spot ahead of Boston (Matt Lashoff) and acquired in a 2006 trade for Andrew Raycroft. Of all the other players drafted by the B’s- only Spooner (29) was a projected first-rounder (Morrow at 30, but he was drafted by PIT). There are no top-10 draft-projected (by RLR) players anywhere on Boston’s active roster.
  2. Phil Kessel (2), Tyler Seguin (2) and Dougie Hamilton (5) are the highest-rated Red Line guys Boston drafted going back 10 years, but they’re helping other teams. Ironically, Seguin and Hamilton were both had for Kessel…all the B’s have left to show for moving Seguin to Dallas is Morrow and possibly Eriksson if he re-signs in Boston. As for Hamilton, the jury is out- Zach Senyshyn, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and Jeremy Lauzon might all be a part of the future equation in Boston as the three players selected with draft choices acquired from Calgary for the 2011 first-rounder.
  3. Boston’s top players Bergeron (71), Marchand (115) and Krejci (130) weren’t even ranked in the top-50 of their draft seasons. The Bruins selected all three and cultivated them as homegrown stars- where would the team be without them?
  4. Only one player- Chara- had no record to consult with Red Line, but six roster regulars in 2015-16 were not even ranked by RLR: Stempniak, Seidenberg, Krug, C. Miller, K. Miller and Trotman.

Conclusion: The Bruins simply must get more production from their drafts. They’ve managed to make some value picks over the years, but management frittered away most of the high-end talent and it shows in the club’s current trajectory. No team escapes failure in the draft process to a certain degree, but when you look at how many undrafted players or guys who were not projected as impact contributors are on the roster and being employed in big roles, the importance of Boston improving their drafting and development efforts is even more critical.

I will continue the exercise with the Boston prospects to see if we have some similar trends, keeping in mind that there is no guarantee of success for them at the NHL, even if they appear to be on a solid developmental track. Watch for that post to hit in the next 24 hours.

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Steady as Loui Goes: Eriksson’s convincing case to stay

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Loui Eriksson is proof positive that bad things can happen to good people, but the best of them can use that adversity as an opportunity to adapt, overcome and ultimately reinvent themselves. Back before the season began, I predicted that Eriksson would be a prime candidate to be traded at some point this season given his impending unrestricted free agent status next summer and the opportunity for the Bruins to move him in exchange for asset(s) that would benefit the team going forward.

With 11 games in the books and Eriksson contributing to his team’s fortunes in all aspects of the game, it might be time to revisit that position.

Eriksson was the centerpiece of Boston’s most controversial trade since Mike O’Connell shipped a 26-year-old, in-his-prime Joe Thornton to San Jose for three “JAGs” (just another guy) in Marco Sturm, Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau. The JAG moniker is not meant to be disrespectful to Sturm, as of the three he provided the most impact and valuable service for the Bruins from late 2005 until the team traded his rights to Los Angeles for cap relief during the 2010-11 campaign, but when you measure his contributions against those of Thornton with the Sharks, you get the idea. Like Sturm, Eriksson has been able to establish himself as a regular contributor in Boston, but as an identified key piece of the 2013 summer deal between Boston and Dallas, has not produced at anywhere near the pace of the young star Boston gave up for him.

In Eriksson’s case, he was part of a futures package that came to Boston in the exchange for Tyler Seguin– the well-away-from-his-prime wunderkind who has since proven that the fears of him not living up to expectations as the second overall pick in 2010 were unfounded. Even if Seguin’s off-ice discipline and overall maturity are still a work in progress, the hockey product is continuing to improve as he has emerged as one of the NHL’s brightest scoring stars since the start of 2013-14.

However, the point of this post is not to revisit Boston’s decision to trade a 21-year-old Seguin, or to debate the return from Big D. For Eriksson, he became a victim not only of two concussions that essentially cost him his first and arguably most important season in Boston, but also of an expectation bias that based on his track record, he had little chance of overcoming.

Eriksson first year in Boston was during the 2013-14 campaign, when the B’s offense was near the top en route to the franchise’s first President’s Trophy as top regular season club since 1989-90. On paper, his statistics reflect the time lost to head injuries and the likely effects he had to contend with after completing the NHL’s concussion protocol after both events. In missing 21 games, his 10 goals and 37 points ranked 10th on that team in scoring, with David Krejci finishing on top with 19 goals and 69 points in 80 contests. Both Patrice Bergeron and Jarome Iginla tied for the team lead in goals with 30. His two goals and five points in 12 playoff games, added fuel to the fire that Eriksson was a player in decline and a poor return for Seguin.

In 2014-15, Eriksson provided more consistent offense on a non-playoff club, finishing second on the team in goals scored with 22 to Brad Marchand’s 24.

When looking at some of the more advanced analytics out there on Eriksson, the contrast between his 2013-14 even strength numbers and those of this season are pretty striking, and not in the way you might think. His goals and points/60 minutes in 5 on 5 play are actually higher in his first season- (0.63 and 1.73) than both last year’s 22-goal campaign (0.60 G/60 and 1.54 Points/60) and this season’s hot 11 points in 11 games (0.38 GF, 1.54 P/60). Eriksson was more effective offensively in that first year that many pointed to as an abject failure given Seguin’s offensive explosion (and ability to stay healthy).

Where Eriksson has raised the game is on the power play in 2015-16 compared to past seasons. In 37:48 on the ice with the man advantage thus far, he’s on pace to shatter his totals from his two previous seasons in Boston. His three goals and five points are already half of what he produced in 188+ minutes of 5v4 play a year ago, and he had a total of 11 points in 115 man advantage minutes in 2013-14. His goals and points/60 totals on the power play are 4.76 and 7.94 respectively, impressive when compared against the 1.91 and 3.18 from a year ago (remember he finished second on the team in goals, and his 47 points were second to Bergeron’s 55). Eriksson’s 5v4 numbers in 2013-4 are closer- just 1.04 goals/60 but his assist ratio was a significantly higher 4.66 giving him a 5.70 points/60 during that “failed” season. David Krejci’s numbers look like a guy at the top of Boston’s pay scale- his 5v4 goals and points/60 are even higher than Eriksson’s- 2.92 and 10.21.

Time will tell if Boston can sustain its blistering power play pace, but you figure Eriksson and his teammates will come back down to Earth at some point. For now, however, he is making his presence felt, which is important given that the man advantage is helping to offset the disastrous last-place PK for Boston.

Eriksson’s shots per game are down from what they were in the previous two seasons, but he’s making more plays to pass the puck to teammates who are finishing them off with goals. His individual Corsi rating is down because he’s simply not shooting as much as he has in the past, but expect that to balance out as the season goes on.

So, if you look at Eriksson’s consistent production across the two full seasons and early part of a third, he’s actually been a good value for his current cap hit of $4.25M. At age 30, he’s not getting any younger but when you compare him to Pittsburgh forward Patric Hornqvist, for example, his  points/60 at even strength are comparable, but on the PP, Eriksson’s 7.94 far eclipses Hornqvist’s 2.46 (Hornqvist has played about 13 fewer minutes with the man advantage as Eriksson has). Jakub Voracek and James van Riemsdyk both make the same coin and are well behind the older Eriksson in terms of their 5on5 and 5on4 production. Calgary’s Michael Frolik makes $4.3M and is well ahead at even strength P/60 with 3.00, but is a big goose egg on the PP.

So- given the loss of Chris Kelly to a fractured femur and the fact that Eriksson is not only providing production, but quiet leadership as a respected teammate, don’t be so quick to advocate for his departure. It is entirely possible that by the end of the season, assuming he can continue to perform on a similar trajectory, talk of a modest AAV increase with a reasonable term of let’s say- three years- gives Eriksson an opportunity to be part of a better solution than what we have seen to date in Boston.

I realize that for some in Boston- there is simply no getting around the fact that Eriksson is not the player Seguin is and there will be a desire to move on and invest that cash on someone else perhaps a little younger with a more intriguing upside than the ‘Steady Eddie’ (Loui) No. 21 has been for the Bruins. That’s a fair point, but be careful what you wish for. At this stage of his career, Eriksson’s value can be measured in more than the statistics, and he’s probably less interested in cashing in than being valued and a part of a team that could be putting pieces in place to get back onto the road of contention in another 1-2 years.

Even in his “worst” year as a Bruin, Eriksson was a consistent producer who doesn’t get enough credit for his defensive play and willingness to do the little things to help his team have success. Some of those things come at the price of gaudier numbers and his mediocre open-ice speed is a point that critics can effectively argue against.

When all is said and done- the Bruins will be faced with an interesting choice this season. Trade him to a contender in the spring time and likely get a seller’s price for him, or invest in him continuing to be a solid citizen and contributor and make the effort to keep him in the fold come free agency. He’s proven that his play is not a fluke- he may not be putting up the pure production he did earlier in his career, but he’s providing balance and consistency, which is important to any winning club.This isn’t a Gregory Campbell situation here- if people are honest with themselves, it’s readily apparent that Eriksson is a superior offensive player who is not too old to continue his career trends for another 3 or 4 years if he can avoid any more TBI.

The case to trade Eriksson if Boston is selling at the deadline or keep him around for the next organizational iteration is something that my surface-level analysis of just a very few statistics can’t come close to effectively arguing for or against, but you can bet that someone out there is crunching the numbers.

 

 

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Final Buzzer: Starstruck- Seguin hatty sinks B’s, Kelly fractures femur

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Chris Kelly will be missed (Photo courtesy of Alison M. Foley)

Chris Kelly will be missed Get well soon!(Photo courtesy of Alison M. Foley)

The Boston Bruins welcomed Tyler Seguin to his old digs at the TD Garden just in time to see him net his seventh career hat trick against the club that traded him on July 4, 2013.

The home team (and Boston’s penalty killing effort) suffered a brutal loss not only on the scoreboard, but on its active roster as well when veteran two-way forward went down early in the first period when Chris Kelly’s left leg buckled under him in a non-contact situation. He stayed down a long time and was eventually hoisted up off the ice by Zdeno Chara and left the surface without putting any weight on his left leg. In the third period, Don Sweeney broke the bad news: Kelly is lost for the rest of the season as Don Sweeney announced he has a left femur fracture.

Kelly’s absence showed, with the Bruins surrendering three power play goals in a 5-2 loss, but it was a  game the B’s could have won with a more consistent performance across the entire 60 minutes after a solid start.

Seguin opened scoring with a missile off the rush from the left circle, beating Tuukka Rask in the 1st period to give Dallas the lead after the Bruins had gotten off to a hot start with six shots to none before he found the back of the net with his club’s first on net.

Colin Miller answered for the Bruins, rifling home his first career NHL goal from the point to make it a 1-1 game. “Chiller” has demonstrated a heavy shot that he can get off quickly and on net.

Loui Eriksson tallied a power play goal (his third of the season and 10th point in 11 games) off of a rebound of Torey Krug’s slapper from the left circle. Patrice Bergeron also assisted on the play, giving the Bruins a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes.

Seguin scored a power play marker in the second frame, stepping into the left circle and firing a heater past Rask with Jamie Benn set up in front taking away his sight lines.

Dallas took the lead with a point shot from Jyrki Jokipakka, who scored his first career NHL goal (in some 62 games) to make it 3-2.

Seguin tallied the hat trick again on the power play when Krug was whistled for a delay of game penalty after clearing the puck over the glass. Seguin took a Jason Spezza pass in the left circle once again and burying a one-timer before Rask could get across his crease. It was Seguin’s eighth tally of the year and gave the Stars a 4-2 lead.

Defenseman Alex Goligoski would add another power play marker to put the game out of reach.

The story of this one centers around the loss of Kelly, who was transported to Mass General Hospital and will have surgery tomorrow and then is expected to miss six to eight months. For all intents and purposes, Kelly’s season is done, and now one wonders if the team will look to Max Talbot to fill the void.

Seguin’s hat trick no doubt added some salt to the wounds in Boston, but credit the Stars for recovering from a mediocre first period after playing the night before in a loss to Toronto to turn the tables on Boston in the final 40 minutes. The Bruins outshot Dallas 39-19, but the scoreboard bore the message of Boston’s defeat: 5-3, visiting team.

Alex Khokhlachev showed some flashes of ability and hustle in his first NHL game of 15-16, but when the B’s found themselves on the PK, he didn’t get much time on ice.

UP

Loui Eriksson- Two goals tonight including a meaningless late-game score on a give-and-go with Ryan Spooner to make it a 5-3 game with a little over two minutes remaining. Eriksson has been a consistent bright spot on offense. His four goals this season have come in two games on a pair of two-goal efforts, but he’s added seven assists in 11 games as well. With Kelly gone, Eriksson’s value to the team as one of the more experienced and effective two-way forwards is even greater.

Colin Miller- The defenseman acquired in the trade for Milan Lucic continues to generate offense, scoring his first goal on a point blast. With his tools and knack for creating scoring chances from the back end, Boston fans have to be excited for this young man’s future.

Chris Kelly- B’s fans will now learn how much more the veteran did for the club that he didn’t get credit for. It is the ultimate in irony for a player of Kelly’s character to be lost on such a random play…he wasn’t blown up on a big hit. It was a freak injury with devastating effect. He gets an up because throughout his Boston tenure, he’s been a leader and gritty two-way performer. It’s a tough pill for Boston to swallow right now.

Tyler Seguin- What more can you say about his performance? The former Bruin and 2010 second overall selection used his wicked shot and high-end offensive talent to lethal effect tonight, overcoming the fact that Boston held the statistical edge in most categories except in the one that matters most: the final score. The trade that sent him to Dallas will continue to polarize B’s fans for years to come, but Seguin still needs to demonstrate he can perform at this level and higher come February and beyond when it gets tougher to score in the NHL and points are at a premium. He deserves full marks for his three goals in this one, and becomes the first former Bruins player to score a hat trick in Boston since Mariusz Czerkawski did it with the Edmonton Oilers on November 6, 1996.

Jamie Benn- He’s a tremendous player and the chemistry Benn has with Seguin is admirable. He not only gets the big-time points production and consistent scoring, but he does the little things, like go to the net and set up a screen as he did on Seguin’s second goal. These two have been dynamite together, but with the way things have gone this season, 2015-16 just might be the real breakthrough year by both players as they are on pace to raise the bar.

DOWN

Boston’s penalty kill- They gave up three goals on four Stars attempts and were at their worst when they appeared to stop skating on Seguin’s hat trick goal, thinking the puck left the zone. It didn’t, thanks a strong play at the blue line by John Klingberg and seconds later, the Stars were up by two. It’s not going to get any easier with Kelly now gone for the balance of the season. Watch for Max Talbot to come back up and try to fill those skates.

Tuukka Rask- He’s gotten credit when he plays well, and he goes back on this list when he comes up short. The Bruins needed him to make the first save tonight and he wasn’t up to the task. Sure- the defense had some breakdowns in front of him, but he was off his angles and at times made it easy for Dallas, especially on the Goligoski goal, where he seemed to lose his poise and focus. Team effort tonight- and the Bruins lost as a team, but Rask needs to be better.

Zac Rinaldo- As the John C. McGinley Bob asked Tom “Leap to Conclusions Mat” Symanski on Office Space “What would you say…you do here?” Energy is good, hitting is fine, but Rinaldo is no threat to generate any kind of consistent offensive pressure, so what he brings to the table simply does not balance out what the team could better get from someone else on the roster.

Antoine Roussel- A slew foot AND a high stick on Zac Rinaldo? On the same play? If ever there was someone who could out-rat Rinaldo, it’s Roussel.

Tough loss in what was a winnable game for the Bruins in what is going to be a challenging week, as the team loses in regulation for the first time since the Columbus Day match against Tampa Bay.