JeremySwayman is the future master of the blue paint for the Boston Bruins. Everything he has done in 9 NHL games this season is worthy of phenom status. His numbers to date are even better then the shiny numbers he put up in the AHL through his first 9 games.
Not since FrankBrimsek have the Bruins had such a promising young netminder and I say that with all due respect to TuukkaRask.
The numbers are eye popping: 9 games played, 7 wins, 2 losses, a goals-against-average of 1.44 and a save-percentage of .946 and two shutouts in those 9 matches.
Swayman is having fun. He’s smiling, laughing, engaging in a friendly manner with the on-ice officials and contrary to what any other goalie who has ever played in the shootout era NHL, loves shootouts. The personality is there, the calmness is there and most importantly, the skill is there.
It’s almost a foregone conclusion that if something were to happen to Rask in the playoffs, or if he needs a game off here or there, that Swayman will likely man the net for the Bruins over JaroslavHalak.
But this is where we have to put on the brakes. It may very well be that the business side of hockey is what determines Swayman’s status for the 2021-22 season.
If you are a believer that General Manager DonSweeney will bring Rask back and re-sign him, which this writer believes to be the case, that signing won’t happen until after the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. The reasoning for waiting is a simple one: They wouldn’t have to protect Rask from being selected by Kraken GM RonFrancis and could then protect DanVladar.
The situation is a simple one then with Rask, Vladar and Swayman in the fold for next season. Only one of the three is waiver exempt for the 2021-22 season and that’s Swayman.
I’m not so sure Sweeney wants to risk losing Vladar on the waiver wire – and truth be told, there would be more then a few teams interested. Sweeney took a risk after the Vegas Golden Knights expansion trying to sneak MalcolmSubban through waivers and he lost as the Golden Knights nabbed him. That forced Sweeney to go out and sign undrafted free agent netminder KyleKeyser who I might add, I also believe in.
The only safe bet and protection Sweeney has is to have Rask and Vladar man the net for the Bruins while Swayman gets to be the guy in Providence.
No doubt the general consensus is going to be “Dom has lost his mind.” Maybe so. But I ask you to put yourself in Sweeney’s shoes. Are you going to risk losing a goaltender that you’ve invested 6 years on to develop him to this point? And a goaltender who at worst could be a capable NHL backup and form a tandem with Swayman in the future?
TSP contributing editor Dominic Tiano brings an interesting perspective on the future of No. 74 on the Boston Bruins. Truth in lending- he wrote and submitted this yesterday before the win over the NY Rangers and Jake DeBrusk’s fifth goal of the season off the rush. This was also written before any of us saw DeBrusk’s honest and open response to the media about his struggles this season. So- take it all in context, but that doesn’t change the fact that the economics of hockey will eventually force the Bruins to make some hard decisions.- KL
I think if you were to ask that question, the majority of fans would say “yes, it’s time to move on from JakeDeBrusk.”
By nature, I am a very patient person and would likely wait until things get back to some sense of normalcy in the world, hopefully next season, before passing judgement. On the other hand, I trust General Manager DonSweeney to make whatever decision he makes.
NESN analyst and former Bruins netminder AndrewRaycroft had an interesting thought on his MorningBru Podcast with fellow analyst BillyJaffe. Raycroft suggested that for a single person, not having a wife or kids or a family to go home to and live under the NHL COVID Protocol rules might be having an effect on JDB74. It’s also something Jaffe has spoken about throughout the season.
There is some merit to that and I will admit it is something that has crossed my mind. But while I considered it, I thought to myself, well, it hasn’t affected JakubZboril, or JeremyLauzon or to a lessor extent, JeremySwayman.
I quickly reminded myself that not everyone handles adversity, or stress in the same manner and that it could have an adverse effect on DeBrusk. But is that on DeBrusk or is that on the team for not making sure the player is dealing with the circumstances as best he can? The truth is we don’t know. We have no idea what is going on behind the scenes.
There is a segment of Bruins followers that believe that the downfall began with the concussion DeBrusk suffered during the 2019 playoffs at the hands of NazemKadri. While the latter was suspended for the remainder of the series, DeBrusk never missed a game.
While one can never predict how concussions will impact a player, it did take some time for players like teammate PatriceBergeron or SidneyCrosby. And of course, there are those like MarcSavard who had their careers ended. So, is there hesitancy that stems from that?
While those could have adverse effects on DeBrusk, one can not ignore the fact that DeBrusk is having trouble identifying what type of player he is. There is no denying his best season was the 2018-19 campaign in which he scored 27 goals. A majority of those goals, 66.7% came as a direct result of his net front presence whether by tip-ins or rebounds.
What we’ve witnessed since then is DeBrusk spending less time in that net front position and shooting more. He had an amazing shot percentage of 17.3% during his 27-goal campaign dropped to 11.8% last season and a measly 5.1% this season. He lost his net front position on the first powerplay unit to NickRitchie this year and also while he was playing with Ritchie and DavidKrejci.
I apologize in advance to the anti-analytics crowd but here it is anyway: Since his best season, DeBrusk is above average in forecheck pressure per 60 minutes and above average in dump in recoveries a year ago. What’s changed? He’s trying to be a zone entry guy – one who carries the play into the offensive zone – and it is not in his repertoire, at least not successfully. And rather then let those more capable of doing that do their jobs while he does what he does best and go to the net, he continues to try and at every turn and is being forced to the outside by defenders and attempts a low opportunity shot at the net.
For DeBrusk, the answer is simple: Get back to what makes you successful.
It’s been rumored that NHL GMs were calling Sweeney about DeBrusk prior to the trade deadline and that the Bruins refused to trade him. There are those that believe Sweeney is trying to save face because of the 2015 Draft. I can’t put any stock into the latter because the Bruins GM has shown he is not shy about moving on if it’s the right thing to do for the organization.
Where does that leave DeBrusk? Well, he’s signed for one more season with a cap hit of $3,675,000. If the Bruins are able to work out an extension with newly acquired TaylorHall, then that leaves third line left wing. Then there is Ritchie who is a restricted free agent and requires a qualifying offer of $2 million for next season. That could push DeBrusk to where he is now, the fourth line.
Of course, DeBrusk can play the right side, but I think that has proven to be a failure for the most part. But most importantly, when his contract is up, DeBrusk is going to require a qualifying offer of $4,410,000.
The best everyone could hope for is that DeBrusk finds his game and quickly and maintains it through the playoffs or his trade value will diminish if it already hasn’t. Best case scenario is to go into next season and hope we live in a more normal world and that the world today really is having an effect on him.
Dominic Tiano returns to the blog again with another post on the job Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney has done with the team in a season where he’s been embattled after some controversial non-moves before the start of the 2021 NHL campaign. Here’s Dom’s breakdown… -KL
Prior trades. Past free agent signings. Drafting history.
Those are some of the things Bruins fans concentrate on and call for DonSweeney to be terminated let alone receive consideration for General Manager of the Year honours for the 2020-2021 season.
It began in the offseason, not just with fans, but some in the media. Sweeney made the decision to move on from veteran blue liners ZdenoChara and ToreyKrug. In fairness to Sweeney, he did offer Chara a contract but the latter decided to move on to the Washington Capitals. But for some fans, that didn’t matter. In their minds, Sweeney needed to do the impossible and get his long-time captain under contract.
The heat was really turned up a notch when the only free agent signing Sweeney brought in was CraigSmith and the decision was made to go with a younger blue line.
Things got off to a great start for the Bruins but then the injury bug began to decimate the Bruins blue line. In true Sweeney fashion, he remained calm and calculated in his decision making and he wasn’t going to let the injuries dictate is moves going forward.
He claimed JarredTinordi off the waiver wire from the Nashville Predators as a stop gap and Tinordi filled in well.
The team started to get healthy heading towards trade deadline, or at the very least, Sweeney knew they were heading towards a healthy squad. So, heading towards trade deadline, Sweeney struck in what can only be considered as his best moves during his tenure leading the Bruins.
Sweeney struck a deal with the Buffalo Sabres to bring in TaylorHall. It’s true that Hall controlled all options in the trade since he held a no movement clause. Sweeney can’t be credited for that. But what he can be credited for is the price he paid to acquire the 2010 NHL Entry Draft’s first overall selection and former league MVP.
Sweeney gave up Anders Bjork and a second-round pick in 2021 but the most impressive think about the deal isn’t that he gave up so little for Hall (with the Sabres retaining 50% of the contract) but he also got Buffalo GM KevynAdams to include Curtis Lazar in the deal. As much as Hall is credited with reviving DavidKrejci and the second line, Lazar is credited for a rejuvenated fourth line in which Coach BruceCassidy is not afraid of using in any situation. That confidence in them was lacking pre trade deadline.
But that isn’t all Sweeney was able to pull off. He also sent a third-round pick in 2022 to the Ottawa Senators for MikeReilly. As we wrote about here on TSP, Mike Reilly has changed the complexion of the Bruins blueline. Don’t want to take our word for it? Jack Edwards said during the Bruins 6-2 victory over the Sabres on Saturday, “Mike Reilly has changed the composure of the Bruins defense.”
And the Bruins have done nothing but be the hottest team since then, going 10-2-1 to lock up a playoff spot for the fifth straight year.
Of course, you can’t base the GM of the Year Award just on trade deadline moves, and what happens during the playoffs doesn’t matter as it is a regular season award.
But as I said earlier, despite pressure in the media and from the fan base, Sweeney had a plan, remained calm and calculated when things weren’t going well, and then made his move. He could have easily swung a desperation trade when is blue line was hurting and he didn’t. And the decision to move on from Chara and Krug aren’t biting him in the rear for now.
I don’t get a vote for the award obviously. But if I did, I would tend to lean towards Minnesota GM BillGuerin for the job he has done with the Wild.
We’re quoting a 1987-released album by the metal band Dokken here, but the words work for Taylor Hall, whose trade to the Boston Bruins has revitalized his foundering hockey career, trending in the wrong direction since he won the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP three years ago.
The first overall selection in 2010 was long believed to be Boston’s preferred player in that draft, having to go with OHL Tyler Seguinat No. 2 when Edmonton went with Hall. The former 2-time Memorial Cup champion with the Windsor Spitfires fit the B’s model with his speed and skill game, and having interviewed him before the draft 11 years ago, he didn’t even really try to hide the fact that he was hoping that the Oilers would go with Seguin and he would be a Bruin with the second pick.
Fast forward to 20201, and GM Don Sweeney pulled off a tremendous coup at the deadline- not only landing Hall for the star-crossed Anders Bjork and a second-round pick, but also getting two-way center Curtis Lazar from the cellar-dwelling Buffalo Sabres as well. Lazar reminds a lot of Daniel Paille, who was a key role player on Boston’s 2011 Stanley Cup roster (also traded to Boston by Buffalo)- he’s fast, intelligent, plays with energy and has enough ability to chip in offensively, even if he’s not a front-line scoring forward. Scouting Post Amigo Dom Tiano posted a terrific piece on Sweeney’s other acquisition, defenseman Mike Reilly on this blog space well worth reading, so for Boston, it was arguably one of the most impactful trio of deadline pickups of all time. All three, spearheaded by Hall, have revitalized the Bruins at a critical time, and they have gone 8-2 since.
Hall, who had just 2 goals in 37 games with the Sabres, has found the back of the net 5 times in those 10 games and has 8 points, which translates to his best offensive season since he scored 39 goals and 93 points in 2018 with the New Jersey Devils, earning MVP honors. It isn’t all that surprising that Hall is scoring again- he’s on a better team and surrounded with veteran playmakers like David Krejci, who not only is taking full advantage of having an All-Star left wing on his line, but looks like he’s having fun again (and so is the beneficiary of his puck prowess and wizardry- the newest Bruins LW himself)
In Boston’s most recent win over No. 71’s former club from Western New York, and the score 3-2 B’s later in the third period with the upstart Sabres (they’ve been better in the weeks since the deadline ended) just one goal away from tying the score again, Krejci and Hall combined for a highlight reel goal off the rush, with Krejci toe-dragging the D (Henri Jokiharju) to create space for himself, then putting a puck over to his winger flying to the net and who had all of the yawning cage to fire it into, putting the game out of reach. Here’s the video thanks to Dafoomie on YouTube…
With Boston struggling in March and April due to injuries, Hall by himself would have been a significant upgrade, but Lazar and Reilly together have made important contributions, with the team getting key injured players back gradually. This is an entirely different-looking team, and while they have not yet clinched a playoff berth, they are well on their way to closing it out.
Where once the second line was a major sore spot, Hall’s arrival has given the Bruins two dangerous lines at 5v5 and the power play, while allowing the club’s impressive depth to generate mix-and-match 3rd and 4th lines who can skate with any team in the league. With Brandon Carlo close to returning to action, the B’s will have a balanced, rounded defensive corps that can play any style you want. And the goaltending cup overfloweth with abundance thanks to the presence of Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. And then there is rookie revelation Jeremy Swayman, who has come into the NHL after being the top NCAA goalie a year ago and Hockey East MVP, and ripped off a bunch of wins in his young AHL career. Things are coming together nicely for the Bruins at all positions.
In getting back to Hall, however- it wasn’t an accident that he was the first overall pick 11 years ago. Although his pro career has left a lot to be desired in terms of winning accomplishments on his resume, when the Oilers made him their guy in Los Angeles over a decade ago, Hall at 18 had already won a pair of major junior championships, a gold medal at the U18 World Championship and a silver medal at the 2010 WJC, prevented from being gold thanks to the heroics of John Carlson and Jack Campbell (an star on the All-Good Guy Team who is a feel-good story in Toronto this year after finally finding his game). Hall was a winner, and that’s something many have forgotten about given the collective mediocrity of the NHL teams he’s been on since. Yes, Hall has been a part of several winning World Championship teams since he turned pro, but with just 14 total playoff games in his NHL career, he’s primed to add to that number and turn his spring legacy around.
Whatever rumors have dogged him over the years about being an unpopular teammate and player on his various teams, Hall at least looks like he’s having a ball in Boston. At the time of the trade 10 games ago, he was interviewed and spoke openly of how far his confidence had fallen. Now, that version of himself seems to be a distant memory, as he is using his speed and hands to attack the net and consistently beat defenders wide with speed. In short, he’s feeling it, and opponents of the Bruins can no longer be confident that they merely have to smother the team’s top line of Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak and rely on the Frankenstein’s monster of other combos to beat them. Now, with Hall-Krejci and right wing Craig Smith (one of Boston’s hottest point producers over the past month-plus), other clubs have to respect Boston’s top-2 lines and that will allow the Black and Gold 3rd line to exploit some favorable matchups without the pressure to be the difference if the No. 1 unit isn’t going.
Will this all result in a long-term relationship between Hall and the Bruins? It’s too early to speculate, but things appear to be trending that way. Hall has money- he’s probably tired of being a hockey nomad who will soon be 30 and has yet to make a meaningful contribution to his postseason legacy in the NHL. Just looking at his body language with the Bruins since the trade was made, and it is at least clear that Hall is having fun playing and scoring with his new team, and it has had a cascading effect on the entire roster, who are playing like a group who saw their GM show faith in them by adding key pieces to put them in real contention. Will some of the alleged personality quirks and potential friction down the road deter a lengthy extension between Boston and Hall? Time will tell, but for now- Hall is back for the attack, and he’s again looking like the dominant offensive force who was expected to help take the lowly Oilers into prominence, only he’s doing it for the team who wanted him all along.
Dominic Tiano follows up his Seattle Kraken mock expansion draft piece with something closer to home, by analyzing what trade deadline acquisition Mike Reilly has done for the Boston Bruins and the team’s defense. Reilly has been a revelation, the former Shattuck St. Mary’s and Minnesota Gopher standout proving that you don’t have to be a flashy, dynamic skater and puckhandler to be effective. Dom breaks it down further to show us all why Reilly is a perfect fit for the Bruins and why the team would do well to invest in him long-term going forward.- KL
As much as the arrivals of TaylorHall and CurtisLazar have changed the complexion of the Boston Bruins second line (and powerplay) and the fourth line respectively, so to has MikeReilly to the defence.
We all know by now how Coach BruceCassidy wants to employ his defenders. And perhaps, no National Hockey League coach knows better than Cassidy.
My fellow Amigos had this discussion just after the trade deadline acquisitions by the Bruins about Cassidy. As an offensive defenseman who could transition just as good as anyone, Cassidy would have been the perfect blueliner in today’s NHL. As one of the Amigos put it “Cassidy would be perfect in today’s game. He was 20 years ahead of his time.”
We also know that at different times this season, the Bruins blueline has been decimated by injuries. Now, only BrandonCarlo and JohnMoore are walking wounded, the latter finished for the season after surgery.
Enter Reilly.
The most important thing to take notice of is that he wasn’t just a body to fill a hole and a need. More importantly, it allowed Cassidy and his coaching staff to do is slot everyone appropriately.
JeremyLauzon started the year off on the top pair with CharlieMcAvoy and just as soon as they were finally starting to build some chemistry, Lauzon went down with an injury. As much as I am a fan of Lauzon (and I know a lot of you are as well), he’s not a top pair defenseman. He’s a guy you can use to shut down the opposition on the bottom pair while providing excellent penalty killing minutes for you and when Carlo eventually returns, they will be a formidable pair on the PK.
Instead, McAvoy is now paired with MattGrzelcyk and the pair are analytics darlings together. The arrival of Reilly allows Cassidy to keep the two puck moving defenders together. There’s no need to break them up to get a puck mover on another pair.
JakubZboril, finding himself as a heathy scratch lately was paired with KevanMiller to start the season. We understand the plan and it was something we wrote about here on The Scouting Post in the preseason. Pair up a puck mover with a defensively responsible defender.
And while Zboril showed flashes of skill and ability, he lacked consistency not only from game-to-game, but many nights shift-to-shift. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I have been harping all season long that Zboril needs to really improve on getting his shots thru. To his credit, he acknowledged as much just two weeks ago. But when you have a blueline worst 1.98 attempted shots on goal per game and a second worst success rate of getting it on target at 41.8% all while getting the most offensive zone starts at 58.2% well, I hope you get the picture.
Reilly’s arrival not only allowed the other blueliners to slot in more appropriate positions, but allowed them to face competition that they are suited for. And that has also shown up statistically.
Last season, the Bruins blueline scored 32 goals and added 112 assists for 144 points in the 70-game shortened season. Prior to Reilly’s arrival, the Bruins blueline had scored 11 goals with 52 helpers in 39 games. That projects to 20 goals, 93 assists and 113 points over 70 games.
Since Reilly put on the Black and Gold jersey, the Bruins blueline has recorded 4 goals, 14 assists and 18 points in 8 games. Over a 70-game schedule, that projects to 35 goals, 122 assists and 157 points.
A place for everyone and everyone in their place!
Reilly is tied with Carlo for the fewest offensive zone starts with 45.7% of faceoffs beginning in the O-zone. Compare that to McAvoy who gets 54.3% of the O-zone starts. Yet Reilly only trails McAvoy in attempted shots per game with 3.75 compared to McAvoy’s 3.81.
But it’s not about quantity, but quality. No other defender, let me repeat that: No other defender reaches the level of Reilly when it comes to getting his shot on target. A whopping 70% of his attempted shots make it thru to the goalkeeper. It’s up to the forwards to create havoc in front of the opposition net to make those count. Grzelcyk trails Reilly in that department at 63.9%. If you’re wondering where McAvoy is at, he’s 5th at 48.2% (not including Ahcan, Vaakanainen or Moore).
Reilly has also been a big minute eating defenseman so that Lauzon isn’t playing 20 minutes a night (or whoever else while also giving Grzelcyk some relief.
Just to finish it off, Reilly leads the Bruins blueline in CF% at 59.1% and FF% at 59.9% and 4th in PDO at 100.3
If 8 games are any indication, Reilly is a must-sign for General Manager Don Sweeney this offseason.
Dominic Tiano (and friends) is back with a fun project to simulate what the NHL’s newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken, could do on July 21st when the league has its next expansion draft. We’d like to acknowledge and thank CapFriendly and their Expansion Draft Simulator for making this post possible. If you haven’t used it, please check it out here Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator – CapFriendly – NHL Salary Caps -KL
There are or will be a number of mock drafts related to the Seattle Kraken as they prepare to join the National Hockey League for the 2021-2022 season. This is my approach.
Trade deadline has come and gone and with the exception of the current 31 teams locking up either their restricted free agents or extending their unrestricted free agents (or not) rosters are pretty much locked up as we head towards the playoffs and a very busy offseason.
With the expansion draft set to take place on July 21, 2021, there is a little wrinkle for unrestricted free agents (UFA’s). Since free agent frenzy doesn’t begin until July 28, a current team could come to an agreement with a potential UFA and not sign until after the expansion draft, therefore they wouldn’t have to use a protection spot to keep them under their control. For the purpose of this exercise, we are assuming UFA’s will not be signed until after the expansion draft.
But Seattle does hold an exclusive negotiating period where they can sign a UFA prior to the expansion draft, however that player would count as the pick from the team he was under contract with when he signed with Seattle.
Restricted free agents must also be qualified or they become unrestricted. In our scenario, we are assuming all RFA’s are qualified (and if they aren’t, would we really select them in the expansion draft?) therefore, they will need protection from being selected.
Teams have the option of protecting 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goaltender OR 8 skaters and 1 goaltender. Teams must also make available 2 forwards and 1 defenseman that has played in 27 games during the 2020-21 season or a total of 56 games combined during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. They must also make available one goaltender who is under contract for the 2021-22 season or a goaltender who is an RFA and has received his qualifying offer.
Seattle must select a minimum of 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders and their combined cap hits must equal 60% to 100% of this season’s cap which is $81.5 million ($48.5 million minimum). Seattle must also select a minimum of 20 players that are under contract for the 2021-2022 season, regardless of position.
Making the protected decisions for the 30 teams (remember, the Vegas Golden Knights are exempt) are four people I call intelligent hockey people. They made protected lists up for 7 or 8 teams each and then yours truly will be making Seattle’s picks.
From the list supplied to me by the four “General Managers” I have selected 16 forwards, 10 defensemen and 4 goaltenders with a combined cap hit of $61,067,255 leaving Seattle just shy of $20.5 million to sign the restricted free agents I have chosen for them (or enter the free agent market). The picks also meet the minimum requirement of selecting at least 20 players that are under contract for the 2021-2022 season.
Here’s my thought process when selecting: I wanted to build from the net out with at least one goaltender that can be sent to the minors without having to clear waivers (Joey Daccord) and then build as strong a defense as possible from the available players. Once those selections were made, I picked my forward group from the remaining teams. I wanted them young with some veteran leadership sprinkled in. My thought was that if I could be strong in net with the best possible d-core I could select, that I could always trade for help needed up front.
So, here are my selections for the Seattle Kraken (as we get closer to the draft, I will do another mock draft based on signing extensions and trades that might happen):
Dominic Tiano continues to carry the TSP blog with his tremendous insight and knowledge. Here’s his latest in looking at potential additions to a Bruins group that is among the best in the NHL right now.– KL
With respect to the post’s titular question, our answer at TSP is: Absolutely. There isn’t a team in the National Hockey League that couldn’t use the 30-year-old left shooting defenseman on one of the best bargain contracts that carries a cap hit of just $3,750,000.
The Nashville defender signed his current deal on October 26, 2015. It was a six-year deal worth $22,500,000, meaning he has one more year left on the deal before he becomes and unrestricted free agent.
According to CapFriendly, as of this morning there are only 5 teams that have more cap space than the Bruins. Not one of those five teams are currently a playoff team and are all in different stages of a rebuild.
Cap-wise, the Bruins are in great shape and can literally fit Ekholm’s contract under the cap without having to move out any salary. But obviously, Nashville is going to want a young NHL player back in return, among other pieces.
But why would Nashville move on from Ekholm? There is something wrong with the Predators, and no one seems to know what that is. They currently sit seventh in the Central Division, just one point up on the lowly Detroit Red Wings and some sort of retooling is needed.
Nashville’s goaltending has been mediocre at best. They have a contract like Matt Duchene which is virtually unmovable, as is that of Ryan Johansen. Viktor Arvidsson is also on a great deal, but he is off to a very bad start this season.
Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis aren’t going anywhere and neither is Filip Forsberg. So, it makes sense that with his contract, Ekholm could bring in the best return. In fact, there could be a bidding war for his services like we haven’t seen in some time.
Several NHL Insiders are reporting Ekholm is on the market including ChrisJohnson,while PierreLeBrun is hinting at it. There are even reports from Ekholm’s native Sweden that the defender is available.
It’s reasonable to assume the Preds would want one of the Bruins young defencemen back in return. It’s almost certain the Preds are going to want a draft pick back in return, likely a first, as well as another prospect.
That young defender the Preds would likely ask for is Jeremy Lauzon. But sources tell me that GM DonSweeney does not want to move Lauzon and would consider protecting him in the expansion draft – although, if they acquire Ekholm they might have to re-think their strategy there. The prospect ask going the other way could be someone like JakubLauko.
But we know how negotiations work. Sweeney could offer a second if the Preds are intent on Lauzon and up the ante to a first if the Preds were to take JakubZboril instead for example.
Two things are a certainty if the Preds move on from Ekholm: 1) DavidPoile is going to be busy talking with the other 30 General Managers and 2) Sweeney will make a phone call to the 615 area code.
Sweeney has an advantage here over other GM’s. Along with the help of EvanGold, he has cap space to make the deal now, is not forced to move out cap space, doesn’t have to wait until closer to trade deadline to lower Ekholm’s cap hit and he has the assets to swing a deal.
Dominic Tiano is back with his assessment of how the Boston Bruins defense has played through one quarter of the 2021 NHL season. Enjoy!- KL
When ToreyKrug signed with the St Louis Blues and ZdenoChara ultimately decided to sign with the Washington Capitals, there was nothing but unanswered questions surrounding the Boston Bruins blue line for the 2020-21 National Hockey League season.
Who was going to replace Krug on the powerplay? Who is going to replace the offense from the blue line? Who was going to replace Chara on the penalty kill? Who was going to shut down the opposition’s top lines? Who was going to replace Chara’s leadership? It was question after question after question, and when you tried to answer them, fans didn’t like the answers.
We are officially at the quarter-way point of the season, so this is a good sample size to look at how the young defense has performed thus far.
The 2019-20 President’s Trophy winners dressed ten different defensemen and they combined for a total of 32 goals and 112 assists in the 70-game shortened season.
This season, the Bruins have dressed eight defensemen and only because of the injuries to MattGrzelcyk and have scored 3 goals and 21 assists. That projects to 12 goals and 84 assists for the season. Pro-rated over 70 games, that is 15 goals and 105 assists. The helpers are fine, but they are on pace to score half of what last year’s blue line did and despite the 10-2-2 start, it could be a problem moving forward.
Last season, the Bruins had the third best penalty kill with an 84.19% success rate Mostly on the backs of Chara and BrandonCarlo. To date this season, the Bruins rank second with an 88.0% success rate largely on the backs of Carlo and JeremyLauzon. They are backed up by CharlieMcAvoy and KevanMiller, with Lauzon and Miller picking up the Chara minutes.
At the other end of the ice is where the loss of Krug was thought to be most impactful, especially the powerplay. Coach BruceCassidy has tried different things including five forwards at times. A year ago, with Krug manning the point, the Bruins had the second best powerplay in the league converting on 25.22% of their opportunities. This season they rank eighth but are converting on 27.27% of their chances, an increase of 2.02%. But they need a blueliner that can take the reigns there and the injuries to Grzelcyk don’t help. As we saw last against the Islanders, using 5 forwards can cost you.
The loss of Chara on the blue line, and Krug for that matter, takes away some leadership on the back end, but you can’t underestimate the leadership of Miller, now the grey-beard on the team. He can keep his teammates calm and cool under pressure. Not to mention the young guys stepping into the role. Carlo has over 300 games under his belt and Grzelcyk and McAvoy around 200. They will be counted on to take up some of the leadership slack left by Chara’s departure.
Cassidy and his coaching staff have also adjusted the system employed now that he has a more mobile unit on the backend. First off, they’ve tried to employ a more traditional shut-down defender with a puck mover on each pair, something that has worked so far.
Secondly, when defending, the defense has the green light for both guys to activate below their own goal line with the centerman usually covering the net in front of TuukkaRask or JaroslavHalak. Third, they all have the green light to skate out of the zone. And finally, because of the young legs, they can all activate at the offensive blue line and pinch down deep, something the coaching staff keeps encouraging them to do.
Coming into the season we preached how young this defense was going to be and that there would be growing pains. The growing pains have been evident, but not consistently and it has yet to hurt the team but, there is a long way to go.
Here’s a look at the Bruins defense, our Grade, and what we’ve seen so far:
CHARLIE MCAVOY Grade: A
I will be the first to admit it: Charlie McAvoy should be an A+. But for me, to earn an A+ you need to excel in every area of the game and McAvoy is doing that in every situation except one and that is the power play, although that is through no fault of his own. Cassidy prefers a left shot defender up top on the first unit which is why, when Grzelcyk is healthy, he gets those opportunities first. Cassidy has also used five forwards (at times) in the absence of Grzelcyk instead of McAvoy with David Krejci (who happens to be a right shot) at the point.
In the absence of Krug, McAvoy has taken his game to another level offensively. He is on pace to set career highs in goals, assists and points – all in just a 56-game schedule. He leads the team in assists and points, shot attempts and shots on goal and he can drive the offense from the back end like few others can.
It’s not just about offense though. He’s trusted to defend, almost always going up against the opposition’s top players. He kills penalties, he’s physical, he’s a one-man breakout machine and he easily leads his fellow blue liners in blocked shots with 29.
McAvoy is a minute eating defender who does it with quality. He leads the blue line averaging 24:19 in time on ice – 4:34 more per game than the next closest, his partner Lauzon. He leads them by a wide margin in even strength time on ice, exactly 20 minutes and he averages 2:09 in powerplay time and 2:14 in penalty kill time per game.
McAvoy will get some serious consideration for the Norris Trophy this season. Well deserved consideration. His time as a true number one defenseman in the NHL has arrived.
JEREMY LAUZON Grade: B
A lot of eyebrows were raised when it was suggested here, and the coaching staff gave Lauzon the duties of skating beside McAvoy. Has he disappointed anyone? Lauzon has been the steady defensive defenseman that can be relied upon and that in turn, gives McAvoy the opportunity to concentrate more on offense. He refuses to be outworked and leads his team in hits with 39.
He’s been winning the majority of his battles along the walls and in front of the net. Not only is he good at clearing his zone, he can make a good first pass as well and usually makes the right decisions. He’s become a staple in the penalty kill leading all Bruins blueliners in PK time on a PK that had an efficiency of 84.19% a season ago to 88.0% this season. The coaching staff is showing they are gaining more and more confidence in him and it is reflected in his average time on ice. Averaging 19:45 TOI, Lauzon trails only McAvoy at 24:19 in that department.
As we saw against the Washington Capitals on February 1, Lauzon does have some offensive abilities. Where the coaching staff used him mostly for defensive zone draws prior to that, they have been giving him more and more offensive starts lately, to the point where is starts are virtually even. Again, he trails only McAvoy in attempted shots on goal with 41 and shots on goal with 21 and Grzelcyk in percentage that get on goal with 51.2%.
MATT GRZELCYK Grade: B-
Playing in just one game in between two injuries has limited Grzelcyk to just six games on the season. Despite his size, we know what we get from him. Quick on his skates, retrieves pucks quickly and transitions even faster. Uses his positioning and his stick to defend well. His metrics across the board are very good and there is no denying that.
I know many people will question this grade but hear me out. Grzelcyk is suppose to be the guy to replace Krug on the point on the first powerplay unit. Six games just aren’t enough of a sample size to determine if he is that guy – yet. But if he is, then an A Grade is definitely on the horizon.
What we do know is Grzelcyk can sure pass and he can make smart plays. While he doesn’t posses the same kind of shot from the point that can beat a goaltender like Krug can, Grzelcyk shoots smartly. He likes to send pucks towards the goal and in just six games has directed 20 shots towards the net. A whopping 65% of those shots have reached the netminder. How good is that? Only one other defenceman is above 50% (Lauzon, 51.2%). Even McAvoy is firing at 46.4%.
That’s an important skill for a point man to have, especially since the Bruins appear to have found their permanent net front presence in Nick Ritchie. If Grzelcyk can come back and take the reigns and be effective on the powerplay, his grade can only go up.
BRANDON CARLO Grade: B
Carlo is quite simply one of the premier shut down defenders in the NHL. At 6’5” and over 210 pounds, he is a superb skater. Although he isn’t as physical as many fans want him to be, Carlo has some amazing strength that makes him a force in front of his goaltenders and a defender that the opposition doesn’t relish battling along the walls. He can go up against the oppositions best and paired with Lauzon on the penalty kill, form on of the better PK pairs in the NHL.
It’s noticeable that Carlo wants to be more involved in the offense and he has taken it upon himself to do just that. Carlo could very well surpass his career high of 19 points from a season ago, and do it in the shortened 56-game schedule.
Carlo has somewhat slowed that offensive down lately, largely due to the turnstile of partners he’s had, with little chance to get some chemistry going. He’s usually paired with Grzelcyk, but injuries have limited him to just 6 games. When the latter was out, it was with Clifton and then on what was a back-to-back situation, John Moore. And as mentioned, he is usually paired with Lauzon on the PK but also with Miller at times.
We fully expect that once Grzelcyk returns and Carlo gets a regular partner, that he will continue to push forward offensively.
JAKUB ZBORIL Grade: B-
Perhaps the growing pains are more evident in Zboril than any of the other d-men. And that is not a knock on him. He is the least experience of the group and the talent he possesses is clearly evident. But once in a while he might make you want to throw your remote through your 72” TV.
Again, they were expected to happen. But if you can set them aside for a moment and look at the good things, then we should be happy with what we are seeing. It’s true that Cassidy is somewhat sheltering him with the most offensive zone starts on the blue line at 63.4%, but the coach is also trying to get him accustomed to the NHL at the same time. When Lauzon was serving his 5 plus 10 with his fight in New York, Cassidy had no hesitation in throwing Zboril out there to kill a penalty. It’s in him, but it is evident the coach wants to take it slowly.
Cassidy is also willing to use Zboril on the powerplay and eventually, Zboril might just excel at it. He has an excellent shot from the point but he definitely needs to work on getting it through. He’s third among the blueliners with 36 attempted shots on goal, but is a team worst 36.1% getting it on the net, either missing the target or having it blocked. It’s not a matter of if, but when he gets better at that, good things will happen for him.
In his own zone, he’s good at retrieving pucks and transitioning, makes a good first pass, but more importantly, he can skate out of danger. He’s learning how strong NHL players are as compared to AHL players, but that to will come and some of the misfortunes he’s had will become less and less frequent.
KEVAN MILLER Grade: B-
When General Manager Don Sweeney inked Miller to his contract there was an uproar through Bruins Nation. Many eyebrows were raised and many questions were asked. Why sign Miller before Chara? Why sign a player that has not played in almost two years? And more importantly, why sign a player that is coming off of two major knee surgeries?
Well, 14 games into the season things have changed, and might I add, dramatically. In a poll I conducted on Twitter with over 500 hundred votes, Miller was the overwhelming choice by fans as the 7th Player Award winner to date with over 40% of the vote. (He was followed by Nick Ritchie with 28%)
However, it’s more than just being able to skate in 14 games when there was doubt (in the minds of fans) that he could not just play quality hockey, but play at all. Miller can play both sides of the ice with little difference when on his weak side. We’ve seen it a lot when paired with McAvoy on the second pair killing penalties. He’s physical and hits hard, trailing only Lauzon in hits with 30.
He’s a guy the coaches can depend on to defend a one goal lead in the last minute. He wins his battles along the walls and is hard to move. As we saw against the Rangers, down a man and the Rangers goaltender pulled for an extra attacker, Miller on his off side paired with Carlo, ate up a lot of the time remaining on the clock buy keeping the puck along the boards behind the goal line.
Despite Miller’s superb work on the PK and in key defensive situations, he and his usual partner in Zboril are getting some sheltered starts from Coach Cassidy, with over 61% of the pair’s zone starts being in the offensive zone.
CONNOR CLIFTON Grade: B-
Cliffy Hockey, what can we say? If there is one player in the NHL that plays much bigger than 5’11” and 175 pounds, it’s Clifton. While Lauzon leads the team in hits, it’s actually Clifton that leads the squad in hits per game with 3.3. He plays physical, he can defend and he can skate. He’s pretty underrated in some circles as a puck carrier, but he can move the puck. And he will stand up for a teammate.
Clifton doesn’t get much specialty team time on ice. The coaching staff use him primarily in 5 on 5 situations, but when one of the other d-men are in the box, they have no hesitation in using him on the PK.
It’s hard to imagine that on many teams he wouldn’t be a starter in the top six. For now, he is the 7th defenseman on this squad who will see time when someone goes down with an injury or is in need of a break.
With Clifton what you see is what you get: 100% effort on every shift, accountability and determination. You couldn’t ask for more from a player in his spot.
John Moore was left off the list because one game just isn’t enough to grade him on, even though he had a very good first game of the season against the Islanders.
We’ve sometimes repetitively said there would be growing pains with this young defence. And there has been on any given night one guy is not at his best. What we haven’t seen is those growing pains as a group. When one is struggling, the other five pick up the slack, and that is part of the reason they sit 10-2-2 one-quarter of the way through the season.
Dominic Tiano provides this helpful tutorial on NHL capology and how the constant juggling act currently affects the Boston Bruins. We couldn’t break it down and answer your many questions about the nuts and bolts of the NHL’s economics without our resident capologist and 4th Amigo- KL
I never would have imagined that one tweet about deadline cap space would generate as many questions as it has. With that said, I will try and explain it in detail what that means as your Boston Bruins enter uncharted territory (for them) with a boat load of cap space and how the brain trust of DonSweeney and EvanGold use it to their advantage.
To begin with, there are two changes that you’ll have to remember. First, a normal NHL season usually has 186 days in that season. Because of the shortened season, that number is now 116. Second, there are 26 days remaining in the season after trade deadline.
The next focus is on the taxi squad. The taxi squad is considered being in the AHL, so while a player is on the taxi squad, his cap hit does not count. The NHL cap is calculated daily so when a player is on the taxi squad, his cap space is not being counted towards the cap, thus “banking cap space”.
The best way to explain that is to use TrentFrederic as an example since the Bruins have used him the most in paper transactions to bank some cap space. Frederic carries a cap hit of $925,000 and that is what the Bruins would be charged if he were to remain on the roster for the full 116 days.
Today marks day 26 of the NHL season. Frederic has been on the NHL roster for only 14 of those days with the other 12 on the taxi squad. If you take $925,000/116 that gives you a daily cap hit of $7,974. By sending Frederic to the taxi squad his accumulated cap hit is now $7,974 X 14 or $111,638 where as if he remained on the roster throughout the full 26 days it would be $7,974 X 26 or $207,325. That’s a savings of $95,687. (numbers are rounded as we aren’t using fractions of dollars).
The affects can be seen in the following charts:
The cap hit is calculated by the cap hits of the players on the roster and those that have been on the roster at any point during the season. Earned bonuses have no current affect as they are not charged to the team until the end of the season, although they may want to plan for it.
The projected cap space is what you need to focus on here (ignore the Deadline Space for now, we’ll explain that later). The projection is based on the current roster if it remains the same until the end of the season. However, we know that it will not and there will be changes almost daily.
As you can see, the Bruins cap space projects to be $3,578,368 if the roster remains unchanged until the end of the season with a Deadline Space of $15,965,026 (again, we will explain Deadline Space later).
The chart below shows the difference between moving Frederic up and down to the taxi squad and if he had remained on the roster for the full 116 days of the regular season.
As you can see, the projected cap space decreases to $2,765,006 and the deadline space to $12,336,181 (I promise we will get to the Deadline Space).
While it’s true the difference between Frederic’s current cap hit (14 days on the roster) and his $925,000 normal cap hit is substantial, thus skewing the numbers a bit, it must be remembered that at some point JakeDeBrusk, JackStudnicka and OndrejKase are going to come off of injured reserve. That would put the Bruins at a 24-man roster therefore, someone is going to have to go back down to the taxi squad to get to the 23-man roster limit (barring any further injuries) so the numbers aren’t really that skewed.
Now, to the dreaded deadline space.
The replies I have received suggest it is some form of cheating and that they can exceed the cap. That’s not true and I hope this will clear that up for you. Deadline space is the average annual value (AAV) of contracts that can be added and still remain compliant at the end of the season.
If you refer to the second chart above again, the Bruins have $12,336,181 in deadline space. That means they can add two players with an AAV of $6 million each and still remain cap compliant at the end of the season.
Remember, the cap is calculated daily, and there are only 26 days remaining in the season after trade deadline, so the actual cap hit to the Bruins is $6 million/116 for a daily cap hit of $52,724 and over 26 days that’s a cap hit of $1,344,824. For two players carrying an AAV of $6 million that comes to $2,689,648, and that puts them below the $2,765,006 in the cap space they would have had at the end of the season.
So, the question becomes “how do you know what AAV you can add at trade deadline and remain compliant?”
If you don’t want to dig out your calculators that’s okay, I will do the math for you!
Using the second chart, if you take the Projected Cap Space of $3,578,368 and divide it by 26 (the number of days remaining after trade deadline) that gives you the daily cap space of $137,630. If you then multiply that by 116 (the number of days in the NHL season) that gives you $15,965,026 or the AAV that can be added at trade deadline and remain cap compliant.
The 4 Amigos teamed up to give you the 2021 season ranking of the Boston Bruins prospects as they see it. This is likely the last time you will see Jack Studnicka, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon on the list of prospects here at TSP.
The 4 met up recently via online call to compare their lists and compiled the ranking based on a couple of basic criteria: players must be under age 25, and prospects are ranked and ordered based on long-term potential and impact at the NHL level. That’s pretty much it. A subjective process to be sure, but done based on knowledge, direct and indirect observations and intuitive projection.
Here’s the list, followed by some observations for broader context (not all prospects have follow-up comments, just the ones we felt strongly enough to share some light on).
So, last call for Studnicka and some of his mates- we’ll see how this all looks after this season and in the next several years. -T4A
Forwards
Jack Studnicka, C/RW
John Beecher, C
Trent Frederic, LW/C
Curtis Hall, C
Trevor Kuntar, LW
Oskar Steen, C
Jakub Lauko, LW
Cameron Hughes, C
Pavel Shen, C
Matt Filipe, C/LW
Zach Senyshyn, RW
Matias Mantykivi, LW
Quinn Olson, LW
Riley Duran, C
Jake Schmaltz, C
Joona Koppanen, C
Jack Becker, RW
1. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think Jack Studnicka is the top prospect in the organization, let alone the top forward. We have been saying it since his draft year – He’s a Patrice Bergeron-lite.
Studnicka isn’t flashy, but he does everything and he does it with an effort that is unmatched by many. Most impressive is his ability to think the game like Bergeron. As Reed likes to say “he has a computer between the ears.” He’s played a 200-foot game since junior and excels in all three zones. He can play the power play, he can kill penalties, he can shut down the opposition’s top players, he can provide offence, he has superb leadership qualities and surprisingly, he’s not afraid to be the first one in to defend a teammate.
All things considered, Studnicka translates into an excellent second line center who you can use in any situation. The only thing preventing him from being a top line pivot in the NHL is that only time will tell if the offense he was able to provide in the OHL and AHL can translate to the big league.– Dominic Tiano
2. After some discussion and debating, the amigos landed on Johnny Beecher for the No. 2 spot behind Studnicka. Beecher, 19, is currently in the middle of his sophomore campaign at the University of Michigan. Beecher, 6’3” — 210lbs, started off slow in terms of production this season, however, he’s remained a top-six center through it all. The context on his slow start can be explained quite simply— he was playing well and just didn’t have many points to show for it.
Following his selection to Team USA for the World Junior tournament this winter, Beecher received an alleged false-positive COVID-19 test, knocking him out of the competition. Beecher, freshly out of quarantine and protocols, has since returned to Michigan and is riding a four-game point streak. He’s right back up to .50 PPG with 4G-2A-6PTS in 12GP and even tucked himself an explosive breakaway goal this past weekend. While it must be noted that Beecher lacks the creativity of a typical, top-six playmaker, he makes up for it in another areas to get the job done.
I’m not the biggest fan of comparisons, however, Beecher draws similarities to that of current Boston Bruins center Charlie Coyle. Like No. 13 in Boston, Beecher has elite skating ability at his height and weight. Quite frankly, his skating and physical tools are NHL-caliber and he should have himself a career on those merits alone. Beecher has incredibly soft hands that you don’t find in many plus-sized forwards, let alone with his weight and power. He’s able to weave in and out of players, driving wide and touring the zone with silky-smooth movements.
Beecher forces more breakaways than essentially any prospect in the NCAA right now and while he’s not a sniper, he’s an elusive, deceptive forward capable of tucking it home. He won’t be batting 1.000 on breakaway goals, but he’s certainly going tuck his fair share moving forward. There just aren’t many forwards out there that skate, accelerate, move and stickhandle like Beecher does at his size. It’s those reasons that made the decision easy for us to place him at No. 2 behind Studnicka.- Anthony Kwetkowski
3. While currently playing in Boston and quickly rising as a fan favorite, Trent Frederic already brings a lot to the bottom-six while still having room for growth. The 22-year-old center is an athletic, rugged player standing at 6’3” and 215 lbs. Frederic has been torching his way though the AHL for two years now, scoring at a .50 PPG clip and fighting anyone who will go with him. His well-rounded game highlights his constant, infuriating style of play which is as aggressive as it is entertaining.
Drafted at the end of the first-round by Boston in 2016, there’s always been some controversy surrounding Frederic. That said, he’s a career .50 PPG player in the AHL and led the league in PIM last year with 148. He’s big, strong, tough, athletic and aggressive night in and night out. Frederic, similar to Beecher, isn’t the most creative forward out there and that’s not really his style. However, he does have an excellent shot and has been beaten goalies clean for a few years now. His impact on the game isn’t limited by his average creativity because he’s effective in many other facets of the game.
Hitting, fighting isn’t exactly what it used to be in the NHL, but Frederic possesses both of those talents in spades. After all, this is the same player who beat the brakes of Brandon Tanev in his NHL debut. Frederic has yet to get on the scoreboard, but if the first two games of the season are any indication, he’s bound to be potting a few goals sooner than later. There’s something to be said for guys who make their presence felt each shift and aren’t afraid to shoot.
Frederic ranks No. 3 for us due to many factors, most importantly are his size, toughness and skill. Sure, he lacks the creativity of a top-six center, however, he’s still a good skater with an excellent shot. There really aren’t many players out there who have the package of tools available to them like Frederic and he’s clearly making an impact in the NHL right now— points or no points.- A.K.
4. It’s a lost season for Curtis Hall, who like so many Ivy League hockey players, saw the year officially cancelled back in November, meaning he’s essentially out a year of development. Not ideal, but there’s still much to like here.
The big, rangy center is smart and has decent skill- even if he projects to be more of a two-way forward (whether he plays up the middle or slides to wing when he turns pro is TBD). The B’s got nice draft value for Hall, who didn’t put up big numbers in junior but has seen his offense blossom more in the NCAA. He won’t lose any of his college eligibility over the 20-21 cancellation, but for the Bruins, not getting the games in could mean his eventual signing to a pro contract could be delayed by a year. It’s still tough to project what he will eventually be in another 4-5 years, but given his natural tools and pro attributes, he broke into the top-5 even without the games to measure him this season by.- K.L.
6. Joining the Providence Bruins for the 2019-20 season after a breakout 2018-19 with Farjestad of the SHL, Oskar Steen took some time to adjust to the North American game. Over the 2nd half of the abbreviated season he really found his stride in the AHL, finishing the season with 7 goals & 16 assists for 23 points in 60 games which placed the talented Swede 8th in Providence scoring. A strong competitor at 5’9” 187lbs, Steen is known for his offensive acumen but won’t shy away from physical contact either. A smart 200 foot player, Steen returned to Sweden with Bjorkloven in the Allsvenskan to open the season recording 12 goals & 3 assists for 15 points in 16 games, Steen’s 12 goals still leads Bjorkloven despite the team having played 14 games without him. Steen’s future at the NHL level may be as a winger but he is an exciting prospect who could bring speed, skill and fire into the middle-6 for the Bruins in the next couple of seasons.– Reed Duthie
10. When the Carolina Hurricanes opted not to sign 2016 third-round pick Matt Filipe after he finished four years in the Hockey East this past spring, the B’s jumped on the local (Lynnfield) and former Malden Catholic HS and Northeastern University product. The rugged, big-bodied center isn’t flashy or dynamic- more of a versatile, Swiss Army Knife-type forward who is intelligent and plays the game the right way. A good north-south skater who is tough to play against, he looks like a solid eventual role player if he makes the NHL. While not having dynamic scoring potential, we feel like Filipe has the potential to be a culture guy who enhances the room, competes hard and is tough to play against, and could eventually develop into a Noel Acciari-kind of forward. It also speaks to the shallow pool of current B’s prospect talent that he’s 10th, but he’s there as a high-motor, high-character type who could beat the standard projections, just like Acciari did.- K.L.
11. This was one of the more debated prospects in the system, at least among forwards. Three of us actually had Zach Senyshyn higher on their list and one had him lower. After the debate, we settled on this spot just outside of the top-10. Before we go on, it must be pointed out that we believe the Bruins have not given up hope of him carving out an NHL career, eventually.
But here’s the issue that was brought up in support of moving him down the list: Instead of judging Senyshyn on NHL potential, we judged him on potential with the Bruins. It’s clear to everyone that David Pastrnak will be the number one right wing on the squad for years to come. Ondrej Kase will be given every opportunity to prove that the Bruins made the right choice in dealing for him. Finally, Craig Smith was brought in to the fold as a right wing for the next three years. He’s also not a 4th line player in the sense that the Bruins like to utilize their 4th line and Chris Wagner is locked in there for 3 seasons. With the season set out to be the way it is, there was virtually no opportunity for Senyshyn to crack the lineup. As for next season, well, it all comes down to Kase and what he can do. For Senyshyn to do it, that’s who he is going to have to beat out.- D.T.
12. On the rise- Finnish prospect Matias Mantykivi has already broken through as a regular in Finland’s SM-Liiga having skated in 59 games at the country’s top level over the past season and a half and continues to improve. A project for the Bruins to monitor, Mantykivi is likely to surpass his rookie pro output in his sophomore season as well as having represented Finland at the 2021 World Junior Hockey Championship. Projecting as a 3rd line forward who can bring some offense as well as a rounded 200-ft game, look for the Bruins organization to bring Mantykivi to North America by the 2022-23 season.- R.D.
13. We expected more juice from Quinn Olson, now in his second NCAA season, than we’ve seen to date, which accounts for his being ranked currently in the bottom-5. Good player and still a sneaky-good pick by Boston in 2019, but he’s off to a slow start, and we may not see the projected offense come to the fore until junior or senior seasons for him. He’s fast, smart and can do a little bit of everything, and while he does have more potential on paper than say…Filipe…he’s also fighting more of an uphill battle because the B’s have more Olson type players in the system right now.
Defense
Mason Lohrei, LD
Urho Vaakanainen, LD
Jeremy Lauzon, LD
Jack Ahcan, LD
Jakub Zboril, LD
Dustyn McFaul, LD
Victor Berglund, RD
Nick Wolff, LD
Roman Bychkov, LD
Mason Langenbrunner, RD
1. Sitting atop the defenseman rankings at No. 1, Mason Lohrei isn’t a benefactor to the recency bias, instead he’s a blossoming, top-tier defensive prospect playing in a top developmental league. Lohrei, 20*, is the backbone and lifeline for a talented Green Bay Gamblers squad. On any given night, you can find Lohrei quarterbacking the powerplay and racking up points, driving the offense from his zone forward.
Although I addressed it at the start of this review, let me reiterate that Mason Lohrei isn’t No. 1 because of recency bias. The recently converted forward-turned-defenseman (at Culver Military Academy) has simply begun blossoming into a true play-driving defender in his second year. Standing at 6’4” and already 200lbs+, Lohrei has puck-skills that will bring you back to the days of watching Hamilton play in juniors as a Boston prospect.
Although Lohrei might not be a carbon copy of Dougie Hamilton, when you watch him, and I mean really watch him, you’ll see those similar, seamless high-end tools with and without the puck. He’s able to stop on a dime and adjust his direction with ease. He’s able to snap a puck on net (or into the back of it for that matter) from the blue line with accuracy, power and purpose. The second-year USHL defenseman has utilized that shot to maintain his place atop the scoring list for his position with 9G-16A-25PTS in 18GP. An excellent skater, Lohrei is able to utilize his feet and drive play in traditional two-way fashion.
While this ranking might seem controversial, I really don’t believe it is. Boston, while home for many other solid prospects, just doesn’t have many drivers in the system as a result of remaining competitive and graduating talent to the NHL. Lohrei has been exactly that this year in the USHL, by the way. Whether it’s against 2000, 2001 or 2002-birth year players (2003 and 2004 birth years also compete in the league), Lohrei is able to shoot, score, pass and skate through all of the high-end talent his league has to offer. With that said, he’s still a converted defenseman and needs time to develop, round out his game for the next levels. He’ll be at Ohio State next year and is expected to make an immediate impact upon arrival.
At the end of the day, Lohrei ranks No. 1 in the system for us because he has true top-pairing potential. He’s playing in the USHL and dominating on a nightly basis, especially late-night into overtime or period three where he’s good for a league-leading six (5) game-winning goals. Lohrei, the USHL’s top-scoring defenseman, is also in sole possession of sixth place in overall scoring with 25 points. Green Bay captain and fellow Boston prospect, Jake Schmaltz, is three (3) points behind Lohrei with 22 points, for additional context.
Lohrei is the real deal and projects as a future top-pairing option for Boston’s blue line. He’s going to need a few years to get there and I’m sure he’ll have a few blunders along the way. However, it’s time to face the music and tip your cap— Lohrei is a high-end prospect with a potentially bright future ahead of him.- A.K.
3. We had a small debate about where Lauzon belonged on this list but there was no pounding the table on his behalf. The consensus is that Lauzon tops out as a second pair defender. But as of today, he is also the best suited to fill in on the top pair next to Charlie McAvoy. And through camp, it looks like the Bruins will give him every opportunity in that role.
I see Lauzon bringing what teammate Brandon Carlo does to the defensive game except with more physicality and more offensive upside. That’s right, more offensive upside. There has been some misinformation on social media suggesting that Lauzon has never shown any offensive ability. But the fact is that in his 2014-15 draft season, he outscored all QMJHL defensemen selected in the 2015 NHL Draft. And of all the CHL defensemen taken ahead of him in 2015, Ivan Provorov is the only defenseman that scored as many goals as Lauzon (15) did. In his draft plus one year, Lauzon finished 5th among QMJHL defensemen in scoring, ahead of St. John teammates Jakub Zboril and Thomas Chabot.
Whether his offensive game translates to the NHL is yet to be determined. But what he will provide next to McAvoy is a seasoned left-shot defender who can handle the defensive game and allow McAvoy to play his game and start taking more risks in the O-zone. It has often been said that McAvoy had to sacrifice offense to cover up for Zdeno Chara (if you want to believe in that narrative). But with Lauzon, he need not worry about that.- D.T.
4. Similar to former Boston defender Torey Krug, Ahcan is an undersized player fighting an uphill battle. Ahcan, 5’8”, might be undersized, but he’s also one of the most well-rounded defenseman you’ll find. He ranks No. 4 on our list for a few reasons and not a single one of them is because we don’t think he’s capable moving forward. In fact, we all unanimously agreed that he has high-end tools as well, especially in the skating department.
Ahcan, a traditional two-way defenseman, has been driving the play from the backend for St. Cloud State over the course of three seasons. He served as their No. 1 quarterback on the PP and also go-to defenseman at 5-on-5. Notice how I said “defenseman at 5-on-5” and not producer? Well, that’s because he’s actually an extremely good defender who uses his strengths to overcome his main weakness— size. Listen, when we have Ahcan ranked at No. 4 behind Lohrei, Vaakanainen and Lauzon, we’re not saying that he isn’t going to make it or won’t overcome his size. Instead, we’re imply saying that while he’s undeniably talented and electric, he’s also undersized and has more work cut out for him.
What Ahcan lacks in size, however, he more than makes up for in high-end skating, vision, playmaking and defensive ability. He’s able to skate on-par with that of Matt Grzelcyk, but can also deliver extremely powerful hits in a small frame. Actually, come to think of it, Ahcan was widely regarded as the best hitter in his entire college conference. Just search for my twitter (@BruinsNetwork) nd you’ll find many examples. Ahcan, though yet to be seen, has the potential to one day become a driver himself in the NHL. His talent is certainly of that caliber and his attitude is exactly what you want in a player. His electric, all-out style of play is something that’s currently lacking in Boston; he doesn’t take a night off and always wants two things— the puck on his stick and to deliver a big hit.
Ahcan, 23, has his challenges, given that he’s undersized and already in his prime developmental years. That said, his size has always been a question and he chewed up D1 NCAA rosters while making it look easy. He’s decked guys with inches and pounds on him, but he’s also made them look silly on the offensive side of the ice as well. Ahcan has the talent of a top-four defenseman in my opinion. I believe his high-end tools are first-round caliber and he’s been able to overcome his height so far at each level. Will he overcome the next challenge in the AHL and then NHL? We will begin to find out.- A.K.
5. Bruins fans tend to malign the 2015 draft, but one must bear in mind that Jakub Zboril was drafted where he should have been given how the B’s missed out on all of the D in the top tier. At the time, we didn’t question whether Zboril had the skill level to play in the NHL, but rather whether he had the hockey sense and character.
We’re about to find out, as he will finally be given an opportunity to show that he can play in the NHL. His skillset says he belongs on this list, but where on this list? We’re about to find out. We feel that Zboril tops out as a second pair defender who can play the PP and PK.- D.T.
6. This ranking may come as a surprise to fans about one of the least known about Bruins prospects. Half the Amigos had Dustyn McFaul in this spot while the other half had him 1 or 2 spots lower. It didn’t take much convincing to get them to agree to move him up.
I was excited when the Bruins drafted him in the 6th round, 181st overall at the 2018 draft with a warning that McFaul was going to be 5 to 6 years away and that patience was going to be required. But this ranking is based on potential and we believe in the potential McFaul has, even if the draft position and numbers aren’t on the higher end of the spectrum.
At 6’2″ and 200 pounds, McFaul has good size and has added bulk to his frame since being drafted. He skates extremely well with good mobility and edgework. He has a longer than normal reach for a player his size, very efficient in his gap control, does not shy away from the physical game and he is a guy you can keep throwing out against the oppositions best at any time and capable of eating up huge minutes. He learned at a young age how to be a leader. There are some offensive abilities to his game. He’s in his sophomore season with Clarkson University in primarily a shut down role 5 on 5 and getting quality PK time but has shown capable of jumping into the rush and his first NCAA goal was an end-to-end beauty of a rush. He has shown in the past he can QB the powerplay and as he progresses, he will get those opportunities.- D.T.
7. In this author’s opinion the most underrated prospect in the Bruins system is Lulea defenceman Victor Berglund. Hailing from the hockey factory of Ornskoldsvik, Sweden and growing up in the legendary MODO system, Berglund broke through as a professional in the 2016-17 season as a 17-year old showing his promise as a young, offensively gifted defender. Playing the next 3 full seasons with MODO in Allsvenskan, Berglund would improve his output year over year before taking the leap to join Lulea of the SHL for the 2020-21 season. Paired with NHL veteran Erik Gustafsson on Lulea’s top pair, Berglund has upped his game to another level. Scoring 3 goals & 14 assists for 17 points in 30 games, Berglund has shown his incredible ability to move the puck, run a power-play and defend against top talent in one of the world’s best leagues. Berglund’s future could see him on the right side of the Bruins defence as a 2nd – 3rd pair and running the team’s power-play.- R.D.
8. Who’s afraid of the Big, Bad Wolff? Nick Wolff was linked to the B’s for some time, as the former two-time NCAA champion and captain at Minnesota-Duluth attended the last two summer development camps in 2018-19 before he signed as an undrafted free agent when COVID killed the 2019-20 season and ended his college career. An instant fan favorite because he draws natural comparisons to former B’s bruising fan favorite Adam McQuaid; Wolff is a bit more mobile, probably not quite as tough, and will need similar time to get experience in the minors before he’s ready to take a crack at an NHL job. He’s not going to point much if at all at the highest level, but Wolff has shown himself to be a nasty, tenacious defender. After watching Kevan Miller start the 2021 season, you can still see the value in having someone in the lineup who is so difficult to play against, and Wolff brings that kind of future potential, plus- he wanted to be in Boston all along, too.- K.L.
Goaltender
Jeremy Swayman
Dan Vladar
Kyle Keyser
Callum Booth
1. Jeremy Swayman took the top spot, but it was close race with Vladar. In the end, it came down to Swayman’s sustained run of excellence in the USHL, NCAA and a top season where he earned top goalie honors with a Hobey Baker-worthy year. He checks all the boxes and seems to have that “it” factor that in what could be a relatively short amount of time, will see him make his Boston debut and go on to be the eventual No. 1 for the Bruins.- K.L.
3. Despite the injury setbacks in 19-20, no one has lost any faith in Kyle Keyser and the belief is that he could have challenged for the number one position. However, here is some context from the conversation:
Keyser’s development took a hit last season not because of his performance, but injuries that cost him valuable development time. And there is a concussion history that must be taken into account. Some of the Amigos believe that Keyser is as good, if not a better technical goaltender then his fellow prospects. He’s always positionally sound, his movements in the crease are always in control, he tracks pucks and plays well and he is so incredibly smart that he sees a play develop before hand that he can direct rebounds to areas that his teammates can get to first. He has the best blocker hand I have ever seen to do that.
Some fans are raising some concerns about his numbers playing for Jacksonville in the ECHL. The only comment I can make is that the are identical to those that Daniel Vladar put up in the ECHL. What is best is to get him on the ice and into game action and allow the development coaches work with him. He’s always in contact with (Bruins goalie coaches) Bob Essensa and Mike Dunham, and he will do whatever is necessary.- D.T.
4. The signing of Callum Booth was an insurance policy for General Manager Don Sweeney. With questions surrounding what the NHL and AHL season was going to look like at the time of the signing, Sweeney needed something in his back pocket. Enter Booth.
Now that we know Vladar will be on the taxi squad, at best he will push Swayman and Keyser and we know how much the Boston GM likes internal competition. Booth only has 14 games of AHL experience, but that’s 8 more games than Keyser and 14 more than Swayman.- D.T.
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