B’s CHL prospects final regular season stats

The Canadian Hockey League (major junior) 2015-16 regular season officially ended yesterday and playoffs are up next for all but one of the six B’s futures from the 2015 NHL draft in major junior.

Defenseman Brandon Carlo and his Tri-City Americans failed to qualify for the WHL postseason, so the 37th overall selection will likely be headed to Providence of the AHL this week. Theoretically, the B’s could bring him to Boston, but given the surplus of defensemen with the big club at present, it’s hard to see the team waiving a player they’ve kept up with the team all year to make room for a junior player. The B’s will more likely exercise the amateur tryout option for Carlo to finish out the final regular season games of the year in Providence, but he won’t be eligible for the AHL playoffs.

Here’s a quick rundown of Carlo and the rest of the Boston prospects in major junior and how they did during the regular schedule as they prepare for the second season. They are ranked in order of their scoring production, and I’ve also provided the points differentials from the previous year on the basic categories, so you can see what specific categories showed improvement. I plan to do more of an advanced statistical breakdown at the end of the playoffs.

But for now, here’s where the major junior players rack and stack after another CHL season is in the books:

Jesse Gabrielle, LW Prince George Cougars (WHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  72   Goals  40   Assists  35   Points   75  Penalty Minutes  101      +/-   4

Previous season differentials:

GP +6  Goals+17   Assists +14   Points +31  Penalty Minutes -11  +/-  +12

Season in review: The 2015 fourth-round pick played for his third WHL club since the beginning of 2014-15 led all Bruins prospects at the amateur level with 75 points. At one point in the season, Gabrielle was leading the WHL in goals scored, but he cooled down the stretch, finishing tied with teammate Chase Witala for tops on the Cougars and 12th in the league (Dryden Hunt finished with 58 to lead the WHL). He finished with just two goals in his last 9 games (four points) and went without a strike in the final six games of the regular season. His best month was a 9-goal, 18-point December in 13 games, and he stayed hot in the months of January and February, tallying 15 goals and 31 points in 26 games.

Outlook: Gabrielle was a revelation this season, rebounding his stock after a disappointing fall in the draft. In a world where people just love player comparisons, the name you hear most often associated with him is Brad Marchand, but the more I watch film on Gabrielle, the less I see another version of Marchand. Yes, Marchand is the player he aspires to be like, but Gabrielle is bigger, stronger and has a nasty element to his game whereby he fights his own battles and comes out on top more often than not. He’s not big enough to go up against the true heavyweights, but he’s going to surprise some people in the NHL when he gets his dander up. Hockey Fights gives you some insight on that here:

Gabrielle reminds me more of a wing version of Mike Richards (in his prime) than anything- good speed but not blazing wheels, not all that tall but stout and able to do his most damage in high traffic areas where he can get that wicked shot off quickly.

As a 1997-born player Gabrielle cannot play in the AHL next season with Providence. If he does not make the Boston roster out of training camp in October, he must go back to junior (though he could play pro hockey in Europe- there is nothing preventing that in the transfer agreement between the CHL and NHL). Given the other players in Boston’s system who are further along in their pro/developmental timelines, it would be a tall order for Gabrielle to establish himself in the NHL next season, but it’s not an impossibility despite the low odds of it happening. We’ll see how he looks in September. Beyiond that, Gabrielle is a leading candidate to make Canada’s 2017 World Jr. Championship squad along with Zach Senyshyn and Jeremy Lauzon.

Here’s a closer look at him from early November courtesy of Shaw TV (Northern BC):

Zach Senyshyn, RW Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (OHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  66   Goals  45   Assists  20   Points   65  Penalty Minutes  20      +/-   5

Previous season differentials:

GP 0  Goals+19   Assists +1   Points +20  Penalty Minutes +3  +/-  -25

Season in review: Senyshyn passed the eye test in impressive fashion in his second full year in the OHL after scoring 26 goals as a rookie in a limited role. After spending much of the year on the Greyhounds’ top line, he moved to the second unit late in the year and it didn’t hamper his production despite playing with less-talented/experienced linemates. Senyshyn is one of the best skaters in the OHL, and that’s saying something as he would often explode past defenders in the open ice on the way to the net. His 45 goals finished seventh (he equaled Aaron Berisha and Dylan Sadowy but played more games than they did) in the OHL behind league leader Christian Dvorak (52). The assist totals compared to what he posted a year ago, but is a reflection of several factors: his role as a finisher who was asked to score goals rather than set them up, and an average supporting cast for starters. His goal and assist totals put him 31st in league scoring behind OHL leader (and Sharks prospect) Kevin Labanc (127 points). He played a far more prominent role in the Soo this year, playing in the top-six and seeing extensive time on special teams.

Outlook: 45 goals in any league is an impressive showing, and Senyshyn has effectively silenced many of the doubts surrounding his 15th overall selection last June. The outstanding seasons from Kyle Connor (who will probably win the Hobey Baker this year- the second consecutive season a freshman has won NCAA hockey’s top award) and Mathew Barzal haven’t ended the debate by any stretch, as critics have now turned their attention to Jake DeBrusk. This is the kind of pointless, unproductive silliness that we saw directed at Senyshyn last summer, so at this stage, we can only look at the significant improvement across the board by the 15th overall selection and chart his continued progress. Senyshyn is not a finished product- he still needs to address consistency and continue to refine his awareness and effort in all zones as he continues to develop. Like Gabrielle, he is a ’97, so he cannot play in Providence next year in a full-time capacity.

Sportsnet ran this brief draft feature on him almost a year ago:

Jake DeBrusk, LW Swift Current Broncos-Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  61   Goals  21   Assists  44   Points   65  Penalty Minutes  47      +/-   10

Previous season differentials:

GP -11  Goals -21   Assists +5   Points -16  Penalty Minutes +7        +/-  +19

Season in review: Purely on the face of it, DeBrusk had a tough 2015-16 campaign. He scored just half as many goals as his 42 from a season ago, dealt with a debilitating lower body injury that cost him several weeks of the season, and was traded to Red Deer just before the new year. In looking at the film, there’s an obvious explanation for the dip in production- once he was traded away from Swift Current, he was relegated to a secondary scoring role behind the older Adam Helewka, who was acquired at the same time and made the most of his opportunities under Brent Sutter, scoring 26 goals in 34 games when compared to DeBrusk’s 12 (in 37). DeBrusk raised his assist totals to a career best this season, but there is no denying that the dip in overall production creates questions that a strong playoff showing and eventual Memorial Cup opportunity (Red Deer is the host city this year) can alleviate. DeBrusk isn’t flashy or dynamic, which makes him an easy target of critics whereas if he zipped around the ice in noticeable fashion, he might get more benefit of the doubt. Although he lacks high-end skating and a “wow” factor, DeBrusk has fine hands and exceptional offensive hockey sense and creativity. He improved his two-way game this season and playing for Sutter will benefit him going forward.

Outlook: A good kid with a solid attitude, DeBrusk attracted the Bruins with his finishing skills, maturity and willingness to work. He’s had a series of disappointments since being drafted- from a mediocre Team Canada World Jr. evaluation camp in August, to the embarrassment of failing the B’s conditioning run (along with Senyshyn and Zboril) at his first real NHL training camp, the rough start to his WHL season and surgery, to being completely left off the roster of Canada’s final training camp roster in December. All of those things feed into negativity surrounding DeBrusk, but too much is being made of it. He got off to a blistering offensive start with the Rebels in early January but cooled off and had to deal with line shuffling as he adjusted to a new system and different requirements. Whether he can rebound from the setbacks and finish strong is one of the more compelling Bruins-related story lines as Spring arrives. No one should be writing DeBrusk off this early in his timeline, but by the same token, it’s not unfair to question where he’s headed in his development after the fall off in goals and the general disappointment surrounding his post-draft season.

A late 1996-born player like Carlo, DeBrusk is signed and will likely spend the 2016-17 season in the AHL with Providence. Given a better than average chance that Frank Vatrano will earn a promotion to Boston next fall, DeBrusk provides another solid option to slot in on the left side for the Baby B’s and could  open some eyes with his natural scoring instincts, especially if he gets a chance to play with a skilled playmaker like Austin Czarnik.

Here’s the segment from when he was drafted which has the interview with his dad, former NHL enforcer Louie DeBrusk:

Jeremy Lauzon, D Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  46   Goals  10   Assists  40   Points   50  Penalty Minutes  80      +/-   40

Previous season differentials:

GP -14  Goals -5   Assists +19   Points +14  Penalty Minutes  -8        +/-  +28

Season in review: A tremendous start to the year was highlighted in late December by Lauzon being sent to Team Canada WJC camp after roster invite Jake Walman suffered an injury and was unable to go. Lauzon did not look out of place and was one of the final cuts to the roster, impressing observers with his poise and two-way game. Unfortunately, he also suffered a lower body injury that became one of the nagging variety, shelving him for much of January and hampering play well into February. All told- he missed 22 games, but still finished as his team’s leading scorer on defense (fifth overall). He typically played around 20 minutes per game and was a key contributor in all situations for the Quebec League-leading Huskies (54-9-3-2).

Outlook: It has been said before but bears repeating here: of the three defensemen the B’s drafted in 2015, Lauzon is the most complete and could go on to have the most pro success going forward. He’s not as offensively skilled as Jakub Zboril (though he nearly tripled Zboril’s production this season), nor does he have the natural size to be as dominant a shutdown force as Carlo seems to project as. However, Lauzon has no real flaws in his game as a player who can skate and move the puck effectively, but also plays with strong awareness and has a gritty ruggedness to him that will earn him points with the Boston coaches. Whether Lauzon has the chops to live up to some encouraging potential as a top-3 NHL defender one day or grades out more as a solid, safe 4-6 remains to be seen, but given his ability and attitude, he should play in some capacity if injuries don’t hold him back.

Brandon Carlo, D Tri-City Americans (WHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  52   Goals  5   Assists  22   Points   27  Penalty Minutes  94      +/-   8

Previous season differentials:

GP -9  Goals +1   Assists +1   Points +2  Penalty Minutes  +4        +/-  +23

Season in review: From a personal perspective, it was another standard but solid statistical year of output for the right-shooting Coloradan. He scored one more goal and added one more helper in nine fewer games played from a season ago. He lost contests to minor injuries and a two-week stint with the USA World Jr squad for the second straight year, capturing a bronze medal in Finland. The 6-5 defender is an impressive physical specimen with a massive reach and wingspan, which makes him extremely difficult to beat 1-on-1. He’s not overly physical or aggressive, but uses his big frame to staple opponents to the walls and move traffic from the front of his netminder. Unfortunately for Carlo, collective success with the Americans was fleeting this season, as his squad failed to qualify for the WHL postseason.

Outlook: As mentioned earlier, watch for Carlo to join the Providence Bruins this week and possibly even suit up for games this coming weekend, as he gets a head start on his professional career. He’s currently projected to play full-time in the AHL next season, and has an outside chance at earning an NHL job in the process, but fans should temper their expectations going into training camp next fall. While it wouldn’t be unheard of for him to make the jump to the highest level at age 19 (he turns 20 in late November), his chances are tied to whatever offseason moves the Bruins are likely to make at the defense position. He’s got the kind of size you can’t teach and rock solid temperament, but there’s no need to rush Carlo into the mix. If he earns it, so be it- but starting the season in Providence next October will not be an indictment of his potential, but rather- an opportunity for him to play a key developmental role in the AHL after three full years of major junior hockey.

Jakub Zboril, D Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

2015-16 regular season stats:

GP  50   Goals  6   Assists  14   Points   20  Penalty Minutes  57      +/-   10

Previous season differentials:

GP +6   Goals -7   Assists -6    Points -13   Penalty Minutes  -16        +/-  +8

Season in review: Where to start? After playing well in the B’s rookie tourney and not looking out of place at training camp, he struggled at both ends of the ice upon his return to Saint John. He missed games to nagging injuries, a two-week WJC hiatus with the Czech Republic squad and even a game misconduct-related suspension. The offense did not seem to come as naturally for him in his second Quebec League season as it did in the first and he took a backseat to fellow 2015 first-rounder Thomas Chabot (drafted five spots later by Ottawa). Chabot emerged as the clear-cut top defender on the Sea Dogs, though his offensive production did not jump appreciably from what it had been in his draft year. On the positive side, Zboril continued to play a punishing physical brand of defense, which makes him a natural fit for the more rugged North American style. His on-the-edge (borderline dirty) physical tactics earned him the ire of opponents, but marked him as a difficult player to go up against. Like DeBrusk, the step back in offensive production was disappointing, but Zboril is a work in progress.

Outlook: The coming 2016-17 campaign will be a telling one for Zboril in terms of how he raises his stock going forward. Playing for the Maritime Division’s top regular season club, he gets a chance to reverse his fortunes this spring in the QMJHL playoffs but it would not come as a total surprise if perhaps Zboril received a junior change of address in the offseason. Meanwhile, he’s got enough in the way of hockey skills and vision to elevate his scoring and if he can focus on being a more consistent presence on the Sea Dogs blue line, the team could go far this spring. Their first test comes against Patrice Bergeron’s old club, the Acadie-Bathurst (or just Bathurst) Titan in the opening round of the President’s Cup playoffs.

Like Senyshyn, Lauzon and Gabrielle, Zboril is not eligible for full-time duty in the AHL next year, so it is possible to see him opt for a year of pro hockey in Europe versus playing a third season in the QMJHL. In any case- it is hard to envision any scenario that has him making the Bruins next year out of camp, but stranger things have happened. You don’t want to be overly negative at this stage of the game for someone who is still quite young and plenty of room for growth and improvement, but bigger things were expected of him this season.

Here’s his draft day selection video, so you know the potential is there for Zboril to be the guy the Bruins believed they were getting last June:

 

 

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