I want to thank everyone who gave feedback about the first podcast I posted on the blog, covering the top 10 Boston Bruins prospects. I enjoyed doing it, so I figured it was a good time to go back to the well and do some extended coverage on the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, which will be here before we know it.
This particular podcast is designed to be the first in a series, where I will share observations on the various players in the late ’97/prior to September 16, 1998-born guys eligible for the 2016 NHL draft.
These are *not* players I am identifying just as options for the Bruins- the draft series should appeal to all fans who have an interest in the draft class. The way the B’s are performing at least up to the beginning of February, they aren’t serious contenders for Auston Matthews or Patrik Laine, but you never know. Perhaps the fans of clubs who are in position to come away with those two will find this audio informative.
As for the 2016 draft as a whole- it’s not all that deep, at least compared to a year ago. It’s superb at the top- and I talk about that to start the podcast, but there’s probably a big drop-off once you get out of the first round, and that means that a lot of the pre-draft rankings will see a lot of variance and movement once you get into the 40’s.
Well, enough of an intro- here’s the podcast.
I plan to do an audio mailbag in the future- a podcast version of what I was doing over the summer when I solicited questions over at Twitter, so if you have some questions that spin out of this post, fire away and I will try to address them on the next podcast.
Earlier this week, the Scouting Post published Hamilton Bulldogs’ play-by-play announcer Reed Duthie’s recap on the top OHL candidates for the June NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo. You can click here to read Duthie’s thoughts on Jakob Chychrun, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikhail Sergachev and Alex DeBrincat.
Now, we’ll continue through the list of impressive names and talents in the second part of the Duthie Dish- as he provides some firsthand insights into the key players from the late ’97/98 birth year group in the OHL.
Alex Nylander, RW Mississauga Steelheads- The second of former NHL star Michael Nylander’s sons, the Steelheads winger is an exceptionally skilled player who made some positive inroads as a member of Team Sweden at the 2016 World Jr. tourney. He’s a human highlight reel who can push the pace and shows off tremendous offensive creativity. Here’s a look at what Nylander can do from earlier this season posted by DRL Productions:
GP- 33 Goals- 21 Assists- 28 Points- 49 PIM- 6
Reed Duthie: Along with his brother, undersized but tremendously talented player with a great skating stride, but he’s more of a playmaker than a shooter. He has tremendous passing hands and he can find guys through lanes and angles that you just don’t believe the puck is going to make it through there. When you watch Mississauga play, there are a couple of occasions where it seems each game that there should be a certain goal off a Nylander pass and there will be a double-clutch on the shot because the receiver of the pass can’t believe he could get it through in the situation he did. On the power play, he’s positively dynamic. Two things that burn me a little bit about Nylander are effort and defensive positioning. He’s just as likely to cover the point as he is to fly the zone and he will disappear for stretches in a game. I know his brother and his dad would do that at times, but Alex is almost to an extreme- where you wonder where Alex Nylander is and when is he going to show up? And when he does show up, the game changes entirely, but for long stretches of the game, you can be frustrated with him and unless he can sort that out I could see his draft spot falling a bit.
Olli Juolevi, D London Knights- Legitimate two-way defenseman has high-end skating and overall ability with a high potential NHL ceiling in time. He can skate and move the puck effectively and has a real cannon of a shot that he’s uncorking more and more. Juolevi needs refinement in his defensive game and in working on the little things as he adjusts to the North American game, but he could end up being the most productive defenseman to come out of the class of ’16. A look at Juolevi’s 1st OHL goal from this season posted by Hokinaittii:
GP- 28 Goals- 4 Assists- 19 Points- 23 PIM- 6
RD: He was really impressive against Hamilton and anytime I’ve watched the Knights he’s been a real standout player. When he was against Hamilton is when I got the best look at him obviously- being in the arena for those games- but watching him skate is something fun to see. He’s the kind of player that you can put on the ice in any situation. One of the knocks I’d heard on him coming into the season was that his defensive ability could be questionable- maybe not to an Erik Karlsson extent- but he’s definitely an offensive defenseman. Against the Bulldogs we saw him on the penalty kill and I honestly- maybe against your Sarnias or Kingstons you wouldn’t see him on the kill- but he didn’t look out of place whatsoever. He made some nice clears, was in position, wasn’t screening his goaltender, wasn’t trying to look for the offense every time, got it down the rink. Offensively- he’s just a standout. He might be the smoothest defenseman in the draft with the puck, and has a great shot and will find lanes at even strength to get it through to the forwards out in front of the net for good chances. I thought his compete level was right on point- he didn’t take any shifts off. I was very impressed with Juolevi.
It’s the little things- the stick position and the tendency to make himself vulnerable at times and using the wheels to get back into plays at times…those things will have to be addressed. But, I think as people start to see Alex Nylander or even Max Jones, unless there’s an improvement from them, you could see him jump over them at the draft as the season progresses if they aren’t able to address the shortcomings in their respective games.
Max Jones, LW London Knights- Talented winger with good size and pro tools as the son of former NHL forward Brad Jones. He gets lost a little bit in London’s galaxy of stars at times, and he’s struggled to generate consistent offense the way Tkachuk has in his first OHL season. Where Jones showed off potential to be a dynamic scoring forward coming out of the U.S. National Team Development Program, he might project more as a complementary kind of forward and a third-line option than a legit scorer at the next level.
GP- 33 Goals- 17 Assists- 17 Points- 34 PIM- 59
RD: When he played the Bulldogs (at the beginning of the season) he wasn’t getting a whole lot of ice. What I’ve seen of him- he’s a nice shooter and you can teach his size at 6-2, 200-plus. When he’s on his game, he can play in any situation- you can put him on the power play or penalty kill, he’s got decent defensive awareness, he’s a solid skater- I don’t have a whole lot of issues with him, except that against the Bulldogs, he just disappeared and wasn’t a factor. He reminds me a little of Matt Fraser with better wheels.
Michael McLeod, C Mississauga Steelheads- Playmaking center with size and ability- superb skater for his size who can push the pace and is showing an improvement in his all-around game. His play away from the puck is showing signs of improvement, and while not considered a high-end pivot with elite skills, he looks like a safe pick with the potential to develop into something more.
GP- 38 Goals- 16 Assists- 28 Points- 44 PIM- 45
RD: We’ve seen a lot of Mike McLeod in Hamilton and a lot of that has to do with the fact that Mississauga has absolutely haunted the Bulldogs- Hamilton has not beaten the Steelheads yet and McLeod usually plays on that top line with (Nathan) Bastian and (Alex) Nylander and this is not some sort of Nylander making him better thing- McLeod would be just as effective if you put you and me on the wings with him. Super creative player- very quick feet. He’s got quick acceleration, but I don’t think he has top-end speed like you see with Nylander. He’s got quick feet to start the stride but he almost maxes out at a certain level, but especially at the OHL level, it’s not holding him back at all and I don’t think it will at the higher levels either. His vision is right on, and he has a great back check as well. He’s breaking up plays, he’s in the zone, he’s in that center of coverage and he’s forcing everything away from the middle of the ice- you can’t play through him and Mississauga’s got some good defensemen as well that will work along in concert with that. But, you just can’t find your way through the middle of the ice when McLeod is there- his stick is too good, and I think that is only going to benefit him at the next level because he’s not just a one-way player.
Logan Brown, C Windsor Spitfires- Huge center is the son of former NHL defenseman and current Ottawa 67’s GM/coach Jeff Brown. He’s still pretty gangly with his big body and long limbs/skating and foot speed, but there are a lot of impressive raw talents here for NHL teams to ponder. The bigger knocks on him right now are consistency and intensity, so those concerns might drop him a little further than his natural talent would normally dictate, but if the light ever comes on, he could pay off in a big way. Major boom-or-bust potential with this one.
GP- 31 Goals- 6 Assists- 29 Points- 35 PIM- 18
RD: I’m not as bullish on Brown. I think you’re looking at a guy that has a lot of skills but there are some things that have stuck out to me about him that I don’t necessarily think are going to translate at the next level. Obviously, the size is outstanding, at 6-6/215-220- you’re looking at a player that has a little bit of Jimmy Hayes to him or even Joe Thornton if you want. Doesn’t really use the size- tremendous size- and is not really effective with it. It could be that he hasn’t learned how to properly use it yet and I hope for him that’s the case. His numbers are impressive in that he’s a set-up man and anytime you can have his size down the middle, that’s a positive, but his skating stride is probably not where it needs to be, his compete level isn’t where it needs to be, the use of his size isn’t where it needs to be, but that said- I think he has outstanding offensive skills and vision when he gets set up. I think he could be a real asset if he improves his all-around.
Adam Mascherin, C Kitchener Rangers- Short (5-9), but stout (200+ pounds) and packs a wallop with his NHL-caliber shot and refined offensive game for one so young. He uses his natural tools and high-end instincts to find seams against defenses and has raised his production to an impressive level. He’s not a complete player, but his offensive dimension is so tantalizing that he could be similar to another former undersized but dangerous Kitchener player who went a lot earlier in the draft than projected in Jeff Skinner– a top-10 selection in 2010.
GP- 34 Goals- 19 Assists- 28 Points- 47 PIM- 8
RD: Mascherin’s going to be an NHL player. That’s a guy who every time you watch the Kitchener Rangers, he makes an impact. There’s no way to watch that team and not notice him. You’re looking at a team that’s loaded up for more- they want a Memorial Cup in that building and they really want to take a big run and show London that the Knights aren’t the only ones that can compete year in and year out. So, I think you get a better look at him as the playoffs come along and where does he slot in when the games mean the most. He’s got a world of skill, but I don’t think we’ve seen him in a pressure situation yet and that’s where I’m interested in seeing him the most.
Victor Mete, D London Knights- Small defender who is a top-end skater with jets strapped to his skates. Wheels the puck out of his own end so fast that he’d have his hair on fire if he served on a ship with black sails back in the day. Has the vision, passing ability to make an impact offensively at the next level, but like most undersized players on defense, struggles with handling the bigger, stronger forwards he goes up against.
GP- 37 Goals- 4 Assists- 20 Points- 24 PIM- 12
RD: I seem to notice Mete the most on the power play. He has tremendous speed and skill with a good shot, but outside of the man advantage, I don’t notice him as much.If he’s not leading the rush, then he becomes a little bit of a liability on the ice, but then again, he could turn that around pretty quickly. I’m sure it’s something the Hunters are addressing with him and that team produces NHL players like it’s going out of style. I like Mete- he’s the kind of guy that depending on where he goes is going to be key. If he was taken in the third round, let’s say- I would be all over him, but I don’t think he’ll fall down that far. For me with Mete it’s all about the value- when he leads the rush it’s something to watch because he can absolutely fly! When you can skate away from Niki Petti at full speed, that’s impressive., but it will all depend on where Mete is drafted because of some of the other issues.
We segued a bit to talk about one Hamilton Bulldogs player in particular that might not be considered a top-end OHL prospect for the NHL draft but will probably be selected as high as the the third round or more likely in the middle rounds.
Cole Candella, D Hamilton Bulldogs-
RD: I love the kid. What a player. The recent injury he suffered might hurt him a little because he is going to have a little time out- they’re hoping to get him back some time not too long into the new year- but on night one of the season, Justin Lemcke, captain of the Bulldogs, went down with an injury and it was Candella who stepped into the void and has done so very well. He’s a solid defenseman in every zone. His positioning is good- he can carry the puck, he can run a power play. He may not be a prototypical PP quarterback but he’s capable of it. On the penalty kill, his speed and his quickness to the puck is exciting to watch. The Bulldogs usually end up in their zone long when they’ve got the pair of (Connor) Walters and Candella on the ice. They’re just very good at getting to loose pucks and getting them out of the zone. His compete level is very good- you never see him take a shift off. He gets into the corners and drive opponents nuts. We’ve seen him go in against Lawson Crouse and drive Crouse off the puck. It’s the kind of thing you get excited about when you watch him because you can see what there is to grow out of Candella and at 17 years old, he’s been one of the better defenders I’ve had a chance to watch night in, night out that very few people are talking about.
Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL) play-by-play announcer Reed Duthie spent a good deal of time talking to the Scouting Post last week on some of the best options coming out of the Ontario Hockey League for the next NHL entry draft.
Over the weekend I posted Duthie’s background and his thoughts on B’s prospect Zach Senyshyn, who posted a two-goal game last night against Sudbury to tie his 26-goal total from his rookie OHL season a year ago. This time, he did it in 37 games as opposed to 66, so Senyshyn is certainly living up to his 15th overall draft grade from last June. You can go here to read that post.
This coming June, the NHL draft is being held in Buffalo, which is appropriate because there is a lot of high-end talent and depth coming out of the OHL for the late 1997 and 1998-born players. We’ll just jump into it. The players covered are in order of where Red Line Report has them in the OHL’s pecking order at mid-season, which can change a good bit based on key factors such as the World Jr. tournament, second-half of the OHL season and playoffs,and the World Under-18 tourney in April. Out of respect to my employer at Red Line, I am not sharing the actual ranking numbers with you, but this does give you an idea of how our Chief Scout and Ontario scouts saw it over the first half of the 2015-16 campaign.
Reed breaks down the key OHL players in the first of a two-part series that will post this week. We start at the top and will continue in the next post with a couple of significant WJC standouts in Alex Nylander and Olli Juolevi.
Jakob Chychrun, D Sarnia Sting: The son of former NHL defensive defenseman Jeff Chychrun is a different player than his dad was, bringing a mix of high-end mobility, skill and awareness to make him a two-way threat from the blue line and the 2016 draft class’s best bet to one day develop into a No. 1 at the NHL level. Here’s an impressive rookie season goal courtesy of TVCogeco:
GP- 33 Goals- 5 Assists- 19 Points- 24 PIM- 20
Reed Duthie: If he’s not the first player taken out of the OHL, then I think somebody’s gone crazy. He’s an all-around stud defenseman. His positioning is right on, he can skate with the best of them, he can throw the body, he can put up points. I think personally he’s immediately ready to step into the NHL. We haven’t had (the Sting) in Hamilton yet, but I’ve watched him a few times in preparation for other games and Jakob’s just on another level. I think there’s a definite chance he steps right into the National Hockey League. Physically, he’s ready to do it and personally, I was shocked when he got cut from the Canadian team at the World Juniors- I thought he would be a shoo-in for that squad. There are some parts of his game he needs to work on, but I don’t see him being that far off from Aaron Ekblad.
Scouting Post: What are the warts on his game that you alluded to?
RD: I’ve heard people talk about his consistency and it’s a lot like what I said about (Zach) Senyshyn in terms of people just saying he doesn’t have that consistency you want in a top player every single night. But at 17 years old I would challenge you to find a defenseman who does. I remember seeing Aaron Ekblad and thinking at times he looked out of it and at times he looked like a world beater, and I’m seeing the same thing out of Jakob. There’s no reason that people should be overanalyzing his competitiveness and I think they’ll be punished for it eventually if they do harp on that. Jakob is the kind of guy- you’ll get a much better sense of him when the OHL gets to their playoffs and when you see him on an every night basis at a high level against high-end opponents, you’ll get a sense of how good he really is.
Matthew Tkachuk, LW London Knights: Keith’s eldest son has ties to Massachusetts but was born in Arizona and raised in the St. Louis area, now plays junior hockey for Dale Hunter and one of the most storied and successful (over the past 15 years) OHL franchise in London. Like his dad, he’s a power forward who can hurt you in a variety of ways. He’s a better skater and playmaker, but probably not as physically dominant as the 1990 first-rounder for Winnipeg was at the same age. This video posted by “big white 06” will give you an idea of what he can do:
GP- 29 Goals- 14 Assists- 45 Points- 59 PIM- 40
RD: Matt is a tremendous hockey player with high-end hockey IQ, excellent skater, pushes the play- he’s got all the skills you want from somebody in the middle of the ice to make an impact. The downside with Matt is that sometimes you can question the hockey IQ a little, and not so much his smarts in the play but along the lines of a Brad Marchand– he gets called for being a little hot-headed and taking an undisciplined penalty here and there when he likely shouldn’t but the skills far outweigh any downside for him. He’s got the size to do it, he’s got the compete level, which is sometimes a little too high, he’s got all the skills offensively. He could probably use some improvement in his backchecking- he’s on a good enough London team that they score enough that they’re not really going to worry about that at this point. But, there are a couple of things he could work on- he’s a definite NHL player.
Mikhail Sergachev, D Windsor Spitfires: Good-sized frame at 6-foot-2 and already north of 200 pounds at age 17. Has a well-rounded package of offensive skills and defensive prowess. Russian player who brings more of a North American-style game to the rink with him each night. Here are highlights from his first 2-goal OHL game back in November from Hockey U20:
GP- 38 Goals- 10 Assists- 16 Points- 26 PIM- 30
RD: He’s got a lot of the “Russian” skills to him- you’re not going to find a smoother talent in the OHL. Everything he does looks like he’s not making much of an effort, and yet he’s probably exerting maximum effort and I say that because some have felt that he can be lazy, but I don’t see that at all out of him. I think he’s a tremendous hockey player- he’s already got nine goals, I believe, on the season- he’s got just a bomb of a shot. He’s another defenseman like Chychrun- who’s physically ready for the rigors of the NHL, but his game is going to take some refining. I guess I would call it Dennis Wideman syndrome- at times, he’s as likely to pass it to his teammates as he is to pass it to the opponents. It’s all done with the thought of pushing the play (and the pace) forward and making things happen but sometimes he’s a little too over the top with it, but I think if he can get into a team and a system in an NHL situation where they can settle him down a little bit and just let him know that he doesn’t have to push it so hard, he’ll be fine.
Alex DeBrincat, RW Erie Otters: Small but dynamic scorer and natural sniper leads the OHL goals and is deadly accurate between the hash marks, where he does most of his damage. More from bigwhite06 to show you DeBrincat’s scoring ability from earlier this season:
GP- 30 Goals- 33 Assists- 23 Points- 56 PIM- 12
RD: I could talk about DeBrincat for hours. Being a little man myself, I love the kid. I talked about it with Tkachuk- and you saw it at the World Juniors- he can be a little bit of a hot head at times, but he has a better way of taking it out on people vis a vis the scoreboard.He does not take penalties very often and usually, when he takes a tough hit, he doesn’t take a number, but the number goes up on the scoreboard. Tremendous shot- his size at the next level could hurt him, but his skating will make up for it. I believe he’s a better skater than a lot of people thought he was last year- I thought being overshadowed by Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome had a lot to do with that- he was underestimated. He has a tremendous shot and he can set up plays, he can work in the corners, he can work a point on the power play…just about anything you want him to do he can. Again- as is the case with a lot of these young very talented offensive players, the defensive side of the game is going to take some refining. He’s probably going to have to spend some time in the American Hockey League to used to the physical rigors of the pro game but with his skills and talent- you can’t teach what DeBrincat has.
SP: The big thing with DeBrincat is the concern about the size- you addressed it, but he’s listed at 5-7, 160 pounds- is he so dynamic and talented a la maybe a Johnny Gaudreau style of player that you throw caution to the wind and you look at a Gaudreau or maybe a Brendan Gallagher and say, hey- look, we don’t need to be as concerned about the size because the skill and creativity is there in spades?
RD: A year ago, I might have wondered if there was more of a concern there with the McDavid effect creating some of the hype around DeBrincat, but this year he’s doing it himself and doing it more even before they sent Dylan Strome back to Erie and being able to produce without that supporting cast around him. It’s kind of funny that you mention Gaudreau and Gallagher because I’ve mentioned both as comparables and I almost see him as a blend between the two. He really gets under people’s skin and I’m not sure it’s that he does a lot of chirping at ice level or what it is, but he really gets people mad at him and he’s got a little more skill than Gallagher- more to the Gaudreau side. If you’re defending him and you get out of position or take a bad penalty because of something he’s done, he’s going to make you pay for it. I think that’s what’s been so valuable for him and why he’s going to succeed at the NHL level as long as he stays away from what he did against the Canadians in the World Juniors.
We’ll be back with more on the OHL and 2016 draft picks with part 2 in the next day or so, so be sure to bookmark the blog and keep checking in.
Watched Canada-USA on 26 December in its entirety and then went back to do iso work on several of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft candidates in action to see how they looked.
A couple of points/caveats up front:
I am not in Finland, so all of my analysis is based on film study.
While helpful, video analysis is not as effective as a live viewing given the limitations you have in terms of not being able to see much of the play away from the puck.
I will not weigh in on players with specifics about their game if I don’t see them at least on film/video. As USA-Canada was the only game I watched, I cannot provide insights on Finland-Belarus, Sweden-Switzerland or Russia-Czech Republic.
USA
Auston Matthews, C (Zurich)- The horse. The expected No. 1 overall pick in Buffalo next June has been playing pro hockey in Switzerland this season. He did not have a dominating game, but you could see his impressive natural gifts on display: his natural strength and ability to protect the puck and establish an effective cycle. He goal was vintage Matthews- he was lurking around the goal crease, and when Zach Werenski’s shot squeaked through Mason McDonald’s pads and sat near the goal line behind him, Matthews finished it off. Matthews is a powerful skater who generates good speed and demonstrates command of his edges as he works through traffic in the neutral zone and drives the net in the offensive zone. He has superior vision and he made several good passes during game action that didn’t bear fruit but showed off his deft touch with the puck and offensive IQ. He assisted on Werenski’s power play goal to make it 2-1 in the third period.
Matthew Tkachuk, LW (London- OHL)- He registered a secondary assist on the Werenski and Matthews goals (2 helpers for the game) and didn’t look out of place on the top USA line. He’s an impressive specimen, but a different player than his dad was, showing a little more creativity and shake n’ bake than the straight-ahead force of nature Keith was in his prime. The younger Tkachuk protects the puck well and spends the majority of his time in the dirty areas, banging bodies and creating space. I thought Canada did a pretty good job of preventing him from creating the kind of net-front presence and havoc-wreaking he’s been known for with the Knights this season, but you could certainly see why he’s projected as a top-3/5 pick come June. It will be interesting to see if he can impose his will on Sweden tomorrow- it will be a tough test.
Charlie McAvoy, RD (BU- NCAA)- Quiet game from the BU freshman who isn’t all that tall, but thickly built and strong for someone who just celebrated his 18th birthday on the 21st of this month. You can see how he skates with his head up and advances the puck effectively and with confidence. He made a couple of nifty outlets and lead passes through the neutral zone, but wasn’t all that noticeable throughout the game. Sometimes, when it comes to defensemen, that’s not such a bad thing. He’s a good forwards/backwards skater in a straight line, but his footwork could stand to get more fluid, as he can get caught flat-footed when play rapidly reverses direction and he’s not as smooth in his transitions/pivots. I like this kid- he’s got swagger and brings the kind of mobility, vision, intelligence and puck skills that are so important to the modern NHL defenseman.
Chad Krys, LD (USA U18- USHL)- Tough showing for the Connecticut product and son of former Bruins prospect Mark Krys. I’ve long admired his offensive ability- skating, puck skills, vision and instincts are first-rate, but defense is holding him back and it showed yesterday. He got caught too deep in the offensive end on the Mathew Barzal jailbreak goal and spent a good amount of time (when he was out there) puck watching. He’s an April 1998-born player, so he’s young and has plenty of time to figure things out. Yesterday won’t go into the rolls of his best games, but he’s a superb four-way skater with smooth acceleration, quick, crisp transitions and a separation/recovery gear when he’s in the open ice. He’ll make the wrong read or bad pinch- that goes with the territory and I suspect Ron Wilson will shelter him given his youth, but there’s some impressive raw material for the BU recruit for an NHL team willing to be patient.
Canada
Julien Gauthier, RW (Val-d’Or- QMJHL)- Massive man child (6-4, 221) oozes potential with his impressive skating and shot for one so big. The Foreurs winger strikes me as more of a complementary player who needs skilled playmakers on his line to make it work, but someone will jump on him early. You could see his skating- a long, powerful stride- on display yesterday as he was generating speed off the rush. He started the Barzal goal play by blocking a Louis Belpedio shot and then charging up the ice with USA backpedaling. He got the secondary assist- getting the puck to Rourke Chartier– and showed an adeptness at recognizing the situation when Belpedio had the puck and closing quickly– putting his body in front of the shot and then taking off up the ice. Those are the kinds of plays that will have NHL clubs knocking on his door real soon.
If the season ended today, the Bruins would head into the lottery with the 9th overall selection. They would also own the 18th pick of the draft by virtue of last summer’s trade of goaltender Martin Jones to the San Jose Sharks (looks like coin well spent on the part of Sharks GM Doug Wilson and Co.)
Boston got off to a brutal 0-3 start (all three losses coming at home), but have balanced that out with three strong road victories after blowing their best chance to get off the TD Garden schneid after giving up a two-goal lead against the Philadelphia Flyers in the third period last week.
The Sharks got off to a blistering start, thanks in large part to Jones’ brilliance between the pipes, but a recent leg injury to Logan Couture, along with other injuries have brought San Jose back down to earth a bit. In the first 7 games of the season, it appears that neither the Bruins nor the Sharks are as bad or as good as the first week indicated they would be.
Based on league-instituted changes, the 2016 NHL draft lottery will have a different system to discourage blatant “tanking” in an effort to land the top selection. Interestingly enough, the Buffalo Sabres did not benefit from their own lousy season a year ago, as they were leapfrogged by the Edmonton Oilers in the Connor McDavid sweeps (and they knew they would get Jack Eichel no matter what, so 2015 was the year for something like that to happen if you were Buffalo). With the ability now for the worst finisher to pick as low as fourth overall, that’s a significant enough drop to make sure teams don’t just mail it in. It also opens the door for better teams to jump up and grab the coveted brass ring if the lottery balls break their way. Toronto Maple Leafs conspiracy theorists unite!
Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.
Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.
As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.
The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.
The 11 clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.
Boston’s 2016 draft selections by round as of 10/26/15:
1st round- 9th (BOS)
1st round- 18th (SJS- for Martin Jones)
2nd round- 52nd (NYI- for Johnny Boychuk)
3rd round- 69th (BOS)
4th round- 99th (BOS)
5th round- 129th (BOS)
5th round- 141st (MIN- for 5th round in 2015)
6th round- 159th (BOS- reaquired from COL for Carl Soderberg)
7th round- 189th (BOS)
*BOS 2nd-round pick (39th) to TBL for Brett Connolly
Now that the NHL season is underway, it is time to debut a weekly Sunday feature at the Scouting Post. Each week from now until draft weekend in Buffalo next June, I will preview a player expected to go somewhere in the top-50 some eight months from now.
If you have any players you want to see featured in particular, just shoot me a note on Twitter to @kluedeke29 and I’ll see what I can do to make it happen.
Kieffer Bellows, LW U.S. National Team Development Program U18 (USHL)
6-1, 190; Shoots: Left
Born: 06/10/1998
What you need to know:
Son of former NHL star and second overall pick in 1982 Brian Bellows. The elder Bellows was drafted out of the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers and went on to win a Stanley Cup with Montreal in 1993, with 485 career goals and 1,022 points.
Set USHL record for goals in a season by a 16-year-old last season with 33 in 58 regular season games with the Clark Cup champion Sioux Falls Stampede. Followed up with 9 markers in just 12 playoff contests.
Committed to Boston University for the 2016-17 season; chose the Terriers over his hometown University of Minnesota Golden Gophers (born and raised in Edina, Minn.)
Currently projected as a top-20 pick, will move closer to the top-10 if he continues scoring at the torrid pace he is on with 5 goals in his first 6 games with the NTDP.
What he does well:
Fine skater with ability to separate in the open ice with rapid acceleration. Wicked shot and high-level hockey sense combine to make him a danger to score on every shift. He drifts into open seams in the offensive zone and puts himself into prime scoring areas.
What he needs to improve:
Like most kids his age, he must improve his overall strength and conditioning. He’s also learning to round out his game more and to play within the systems employed by Team USA after being a player who was always expected to go out and score.
2 minutes in the box with Kieffer Bellows:
On leaving Sioux Falls to join Team USA: “The decision was tough. We had just won a championship and I left a family there. But with Coach (Cary) Eades moving on (to the Fargo Force as GM/Head Coach), the chance to play for my country is a great honor and something I really wanted to do. I see how hard these guys (in the NTDP) work and I wanted to be a part of that.”
On what led to his success as the league’s top rookie: “Many people helped me with that. My linemates Cooper Marody and Logan O’Connor are the biggest reason I was able to be a successful scorer in the USHL and I can’t thank Coach Eades enough for helping me to be a much better all-around player. We had such a close-knit group of guys in Sioux Falls and the coaches did a great job to prepare us for games and make sure we didn’t get too high or too low. I think that helped us out a lot in the playoffs when we got on a roll and everything just came together for us.”
On the choice of BU over Minnesota: “It was very close between those two schools to be honest, and it was such a difficult decision to make because of the education and the hockey tradition you get from both. What I appreciated most is that when I made my decision to go to BU and told my friends about it before everything became public, they were behind me and supported it, even though they’re Golden Gophers fans.”
Here’s more from Bellows in a USHL video profile done last May:
Quotable:
“The young men that grow up with dads that played pro hockey have a bit of an advantage. They’ve been around the rinks and have seen how pro players prepare and conduct themselves. Just observing the professionals gives them an important understanding of what it takes to play at the higher levels. All that being said, Kieffer comes across as a pretty grounded kid who wants to get better and is willing to work at it. That kind of thing comes from the inside- even if you grew up around the game, you either have that in you or you don’t.”– Danton Cole, head coach, U.S. NTDP Under 18 team
In this particular iteration, the CSS does not rank the players, but organizes the players by league/competition level and assigns each an A, B or C grade. Players with ‘A’ grades are expected first-round selections next June. ‘B’ players are expected draft selections and the ‘C’ players are on the bubble but have a shot- hence the use of the “players to watch” to describe the list.
But enough with the administrativa…here are some thoughts on a few of the players on the list I have some knowledge about through live and online viewing, not to mention discussions with NHL scouting sources. This is by no means a comprehensive list- my position with Red Line Report limits my ability to go into exhaustive detail, but my hope is to give the readership a good starting point for further research.
Vitaly Abramov, LW Gatineau (QMJHL) 5-9, 172 (B)- Little but electrifying winger brings pure speed and dynamic puckhandling and creativity to the table. Impressive start and he’ll likely rise as the year goes on because of his upside.
Kieffer Bellows, LW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-0, 196 (A)- Son of former NHL 50-goal man Brian Bellows is a Boston University recruit and native Minnesotan with a knack for finding the back of the net. He’s a good skater but has the scorer’s instincts, hands and heavy shot to finish off chances.
Tyler Benson, LW Vancouver (WHL) 6-0, 200 (A)- Injuries slowed his start as he has yet to get in on the regular season with the Giants, but this edgy scoring winger has the tools and pro attributes to be an early pick and eventual NHL star. He was impressive in helping Canada to yet another gold medal at the August Ivan Hlinka tourney in Europe.
Jakob Chychrun, D Sarnia (OHL) 6-2, 215 (A)- Wonderful talent/skill with the head and maturity to be an instant impact defender and eventual franchise cornerstone. His first goal of the season exploded off his stick, shattering the the shaft, but the puck rocketed into the net top shelf. With his ability to skate, move the puck and play a smart game, he’ll be the first defender off the board in June and will challenge Auston Matthews for top billing.
Alex DeBrincat, RW Erie (OHL) 5-7, 165 (A)- Late ’97 Michigander lit it up to the tune of 51 goals and 100+ points a year ago riding shotgun with Connor McDavid. He impressed by amping up the production when McDavid was lost for a month with a hand injury, so there is reason to believe the small but fast and highly dangerous scoring wing can do it again.
Timmy Gettinger, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6-5, 206 (B)- Massive winger isn’t fancy but he just goes to the net and unleashes a cannon shot that can beat goalies cleanly or uses his hand-eye coordination to deflect pucks into the net. Gettinger was one of the few bright spots on Team USA’s Ivan Hlinka entry this past summer. He’s a bit raw at this stage, but you can’t argue with the physical attributes.
Olli Juolevi, D London (OHL) 6-3, 180 (A)- High-end Finnish talent from the back end left home for North America and is an impressive package of skating, passing, shot and offensive instincts. He alternately impressed and provided scouts with plenty of areas to address in the first weekend of OHL games, but there is no arguing that he has unlimited potential. He’ll have to work on the little things like his reads, pinches and making the right decisions under pressure, but he’s going to rack up some points for the powerhouse Knights this season.
Luke Kunin, C University of Wisconsin (Big Ten) 5-11, 193 (A)- Missouri native who grew up skating with Tkachuk showed off the impressive chemistry the two have together when he blasted a top shelf shot past Evan Sarthou just seconds into the All-American Prospects Game last week. Has the skating and shot of a prolific scorer and the Badgers will welcome him with open arms after a tough season in 2015.
Charles McAvoy, D Boston University (HEA) 6-0, 208 (A)- Heady defender can do it all- he pushes the pace with his skating and runs the PP like a seasoned veteran. The Long Island native might not possess ideal size, but his brain and skill level will allow him to make a rapid transition with the Terriers as a freshman.
Jesse Puljujarvi, RW Karpat (Finland) 6-4, 205 (A)- Finnish power forward will be a coveted draft commodity for his size, smarts and polish. A guy as big as he is- essentially a linebacker on skates- should not be as quick and nimble while making it look so effortless. He, Matthews and Chychrun in my view are at the head of the 2016 class.
Matthew Tkachuk, LW London (OHL) 6-1, 200 (A)- I must admit, my man-crush on Keith’s oldest son might be a tad disturbing, but this is a kid who can just flat-out get things done. You hate to compare him to his old man, but it’s inevitable, and while he might not have Keith’s pure size and power (yet) he’s every bit as smart, instinctive and driven. Beyond the uncanny physical resemblance to his dad, Tkachuk is a different player, but every bit as coveted in the modern NHL for his ability to provide offense and be effective in the faceoff circle (even though he’s a winger). Tkachuk was a force in the AAPG and racked up 6 points in his first two OHL games as an encore. The scary thing is- had his linemates been a little more on the ball, he might have scored 10+ last weekend. He’s active and engaged around the net and is only going to get better now that Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak are back with the Knights. Just in time for Halloween- the OHL had best be ready for a horror show.
Had a chance to watch last night’s All-American Prospects Game played at First Niagara Center in Buffalo (broadcast on NHL Network for those like me who couldn’t be there in person) and the United States has some impressive talent coming into the draft next June 24-25 (in the same building, by the way).
The game, which began as a tradition in 2012 by USA Hockey as a model on the CHL’s highly successful Top Prospects Game played every January for the past 15 years or so, featured a teams coached by former NHLers Jeremy Roenick and Derek Plante. Plante’s blue shirts came from behind to win it late thanks to a goal from Massachusetts product Luke McInnis (son of former NHL and Bruins forward Marty McInnis) in a 6-4 contest.
Based on what I have seen so far (and it’s admittedly early) if the Bruins end up with two early picks in 2016, it’s hard to envision a better scenario for them than coming away with Sarnia Sting defenseman Jakob Chychrun and London Knights winger Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk blew the doors off of observers early last month with his showing at Team USA World Jr. National Evaluation Camp at Lake Placid, and he continued his tremendous play in the AAPG last night. He’s not the same kind of pure power forward that his dad was, but with a 6-1 frame, he’s big enough to get in there and is reportedly weighing in at around 200 pounds these days. The eldest Tkachuk son just might have better skills and offensive hockey sense than his old man, though- and that’s saying a hell of a lot. We’ll see how it goes, but expect him to leave a trail of destruction in the OHL this year. B’s will need both picks in the top-five, possibly even top-three to make this scenario work, and there is a lot of hockey to be played between now and next June.
And now- here are the notes on some (not all) players:
Team Roenick
Matthew Tkachuk, LW- He made an immediate impression with an assist on St. Louis minor hockey teammate Luke Kunin’s goal in the opening moments. Tkachuk is a good skater who has tremendous anticipation and ability to read the unfolding play in front of him. He plays has that killer instinct that all great scorers must have- he goes down into the trenches out in front of the net and finds ways to get his stick on pucks. Tkachuk takes pucks straight to the net and uses his body and skill to protect the puck and maintain possession against an aggressive defense. He might bear quite a physical resemblance to his father at the same age, but Matt is a different player, and fans should be careful not to make direct comparisons between the two at this stage of the younger Tkachuk’s development. He’s got some high-end hands and hockey sense, so he looks like the real McCoy. He’ll be in one of the premier hockey programs in the world this season at London, a year after posting 36 goals and 96 points at the U.S. NTDP. Tkachuk scored a goal in the second period last night from his knees after taking an initial shot from inside the left faceoff circle and losing his balance. The puck squirted back out to him on the rebound and he put it in- not a highlight reel score, but a goal scorer’s tally for sure. 10 seconds later, the same line broke back into the zone and Tkachuk fed Kunin with a quick go feed at the offensive blue line for Kunin’s second goal of the night to make it 4-3.
Luke Kunin, RW- Had a fine game, scoring right off the bat with a bar-down, under-the-crossbar beauty from the right circle over Evan Sarthou’s shoulder after breaking in. He showed some terrific chemistry with friend and minor mate Tkachuk and will be a kid to watch this season at the University of Wisconsin.
Griffin Luce, D- Big defenseman is the grandson of former Buffalo Sabres great Don Luce and his dad, Scott, heads the Florida Panthers’ player development and amateur scouting staff. A dual citizen (he was born in Ontario but claims Williamsville, N.Y. as his home), at one point Luce looked like he might be evolving into a dominant blue line presence a couple of years back at Salisbury School. After a year at the NTDP, the University of Michigan recruit looks like a solid defense-first, shutdown player but does not project as much of an offensive threat at the higher levels. He’s big and physical- needs to improve his skating transitions and direction changes.
Chad Krys, D- I just really like this kid’s refined offensive game and skating. He doesn’t possess ideal size at a shade under 6-foot and has to work on his positional play overall, but when it comes to vision and feel for the flow of a contest, Krys is a legitimate threat to make something happen on every shift.
Team Plante
Max Jones, LW- Son of former NHLer Brad Jones drove the net hard on his first goal, a wicked shot and finish on a jailbreak play. Jones and Tkachuk are mates on the Knights in the OHL this season and the two of them are going to give opponents fits. With his 6-2 size, he’s still filling out, but Jones is a gritty and skilled player who can do a little bit of everything. He tied the game at four goals apiece with about 6 minutes remaining in the third period on a bad-angle snipe through the shortside post that beat Stephen Dhillon.
Luke McInnis, D- The undersized but speedy defenseman from Hingham, Mass. left Dexter Southfield to skate in the USHL with the Youngstown Phantoms this season. Like his dad, he can really skate (and as is the case with Tkachuk- he looks just like him when the two dads were on the 1992 U.S. Olympic Team together). The Boston College recruit scored the winning goal with less than 2 minutes remaining and earned MVP honors, though I think other players made better cases to take top honors. His NHL caliber wheels allow him to motor up the ice to be an offensive threat. He’s a project player who will need a lot of time to mature physically while refining his game- he was beaten pretty cleanly by Kunin on a move in the second period because he allowed the Roenick forward to close on him too fast with the puck and opened himself up to Kunin put the puck through his skates and then zip around him. He later prevented a goal in the third frame when Roenick D Sam Rossini took a shot that leaked through behind goalie Ryan Edquist, but McInnis made the poised play to secure the puck and get the whistle. These things will have to come along gradually for McInnis, but he’s a smart, industrious player with the raw tools to develop.
Kieffer Bellows, LW- Another NHL scion, he scored an empty-net goal to seal the victory, but had some great chances generated with linemate Clayton Keller. A Minnesota native from his father’s North Stars connections, the apple did not fall far from the tree, as the younger Bellows shows the same kind of wicked shot and finishing skills. A Boston University recruit, Bellows could terrorize the Hockey East in short order next year after another season in the USHL. He was that league’s rookie of the year after setting the record for most goals by a 16-year-old in 2014-15. His empty netter happened on a nice athletic play- he leaped over a sliding Chad Krys at the blueline while Team Plante was shorthanded and on a 6-on-4 disadvantage, and then while falling to the ice, shot the puck down the ice and into the open cage. Pure athletic and competitive hustle play right there.
Clayton Keller, C- Although he’s smallish, this pivot has outstanding skills and creativity. He played a good game, generating scoring chances from broken plays and using his speed and quick stick to create headaches for Team Roenick. Keller has first-round skill, but it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and productive over the course of the year with the NTDP U18 team to remain there. He’s another good get for BU, so he and Bellows will be able to keep a good thing going when they get to Comm Ave.
J.D. Greenway, D- Jordan’s younger brother made a memorable play when he grabbed the puck at the blue line, beat a defender down low with some good footwork (10-to-2) to open up some space for himself and then finding a breaking Trent Frederic at the right circle for the quick-strike. He’s not quite as massive as his older sibling, but he has enough in the way of size and NHL-caliber measurables that he’ll be someone to watch as the season goes on.
Logan Brown, C- Former long-time NHL defenseman Jeff Brown’s son had a relatively quiet game save for his wicked one-timer goal in the second period off a William Knierim feed. The younger Brown was cut from Team Canada’s Under-18 team that won gold at the Ivan Hlinka tourney this past August, so he might leverage his dual citizenship to pursue an international track with USA Hockey- we’ll see what happens. At 6-6, he’s huge and a load to handle when he’s going to the net, but he also goes stretches where he’s a little passive and doesn’t use his tremendous physical gifts enough.
Charlie McAvoy, D- Was not really impressed with McAvoy’s play for much of the night, but he came up big when needed, skating through the zone and around the back of the net before finding a wide-open McInnis out high for the winning power play goal. Right before that, he fumbled the puck at the blue line and struggled to make the play against the fore checker. The BU freshman is extremely talented and smart, but this wasn’t really his night. It happens.
In the grander scheme, it means he is officially eligible to now suit up and play for the Zurich Lions of Switzerland’s top pro league.
The native Arizonan and prohibitive favorite (as of September 17, at least) to be the top overall selection in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft missed the 2015 draft’s cutoff date by a couple of days, so he goes into 2015-16 as one of the older first-year eligibles.
The big center can really skate and push the offensive pace of a game- he has the skill and sense to bring a finesse style. However, with his big frame that is still filling out, he also has the ability to bull his way to the net, protect the puck on the cycle and excel in the greasy areas of the ice. In short? Matthews is the total package.
At last year’s WJC U20 championship, I thought at times he flashed the brilliance he is capable of, but at others- he appeared not quite ready for prime time, struggling to make plays in traffic when older, stronger players could put the body on him or deny Matthews the time and space that he created on his own when dominating at the junior level.
When it all comes down to it, Matthews will beat you any which way: wheeling the puck out of the corner and straight to the net…walking out from the tops of the circles and snapping off a wicked wrister through traffic…with a loping stride and separation burst on the breakaway…with a quick stick in tight to bury a rebound before someone can get a body or stick on him…you name it. I think that entitles a player to opt for the developmental track away from the norm, and I like his decision to forego North America and the WHL to play in Switzerland against men this year under the tutelage of former NHL coach and Stanley Cup-winner Marc Crawford. As an older 18-year-old, it will better prepare him for the NHL next year- and he’s going to be in the NHL next year- little doubt about it. It’s a good look for the Swiss pro league, too- it reminds me of the mid-90’s when European teen sensations Petr Sykora and Sergei Samsonov came over to skate in the IHL before they were drafted into the NHL.
My guess? Matthews will excel across the Atlantic, putting up at least a point per game and filling buildings over there by hockey fans eager to get a look at the NHL’s next new thing. In turn, he’ll use his natural talent and creativity to score while learning to be a pro in an environment that will enrich him culturally much more than what he would have experienced (and no disrespect to the great state of Washington) in Everett. That’s undoubtedly a major disappointment for Silvertips and WHL fans in general, but this is a good fit for Matthews.
It’s not a path every kid should take, mind you- but in this case, it makes sense. Here’s hoping that when we’re previewing the 2016 draft in May and June, we’re looking back and validating his decision to skip out on major junior to take a path much less traveled by a North American-born prodigy. So, happy birthday Auston…and good hunting. We’ll see you at the WJC in a few months to check on that progress.
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